I’ve added Link Counter to the Wordpress Plugin Repository. Link Counter is a Wordpress Plugin that produces a report of targeted links and domains from a blog’s posts and pages.

A report for this blog is here.

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The big Red Sox debate on the talk shows last weekend was the loss of Alex Gonzalez to Toronto. Gonzalez has played very good shortstop for the Red Sox, and, because he’s a lousy hitter, he was signed for cheap by the Blue Jays. Now it turns out, as rumored, that Toronto’s free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro will be Gonzalez’ replacement. As Scutaro is coming off a career year, he is getting more money and an extra year over the journeyman Gonzalez. You can count on extremely negative reaction to the swap. Everyone loves Gonzalez now. Especially his fielding.

What about Scutaro’s fielding? Sox fans don’t know. Neither do I. Almost no one knows.

After some research I’m prepared to say that Gonzalez and Scutaro are both somewhere in the muddy middle of fielders. Gonzalez may be slightly better and he’s certainly more consistent, but it’s hard to make the call. For the record, the best in 2009 was the obscure Jack Wilson. The best this decade was probably the light-hitting Adam Everett. The worst this decade is quite likely Derek Jeter (though he had his best year ever in 2009). This brings up Bill James’ seminal article, Jeter vs. Everett, which could be subtitled “the skeptic looks at fielding.” After reviewing an analysis prepared by John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, James writes:

The low defensive rating for Derek Jeter is not based on computers, it is not based on statistics, and it is not based on math. It is based on a specific observation that there are balls going through the shortstop hole against the Yankees that might very well have been fielded.

This type of analysis — in which every play in every game is examined by position — is how hardcore enthusiasts grade fielding. Two statistics that result are plus/minus and zone rating. Plus/minus evaluates how many runs score (or not) based on plays made (or not). Zone rating is a ratio of plays made compared to the number of balls hit in a player’s “zone.”

Baseball Reference provides a plus/minus rating called “Total Fielding Runs Above Average” abbreviated Rtot, or Rtot/yr when divided by 1,250 innings.

FanGraphs provides a zone rating called “Ultimate Zone Rating” abbreviated UZR, or UZR/150 when divided by 150 defensive games.

Two things stand out to me when examining these statistics. The first is that while they roughly track each other, the two ratings don’t always agree — underscoring the difficulty of evaluating fielding. The second is that for individual players, fielding varies as much as batting from year to year, if not more so. Like batting, fielding is affected by injury, age, luck, and intangibles. Everett’s wizardry in 2006 and 2007 was followed by good but not great years in 2008 and 2009. Gonzalez’s UZR/150 since 2002 (not counting 2008 when he did not play) is 10.5, 6.8, 5.0, -2.7, 16.9, 5.9, and 10.5 (for comparison, Everett achieved a high of 29.2 in 2007 and has never been lower than 11.2 as a starter).

In this company, Scutaro appears to be especially erratic. In 2006, when he played 69 games at shortstop for the Athletics, his UZR/150 was negative 28.1. Two years later, when he played 56 games at shortstop for the Blue Jays, his UZR/150 was positive 20.3. Arguably the fact that he played multiple positions every season before 2009 could be a factor — perhaps cutting into his practice and certainly lowering the sample sizes. His actual capability as a shortstop may best be reflected by his 2009 season, when he played 143 games at shortstop and achieved a UZR/150 of 1.0. In lifetime numbers, Scutaro ends up as an average fielder at shortstop with a UZR/150 of -2.9 (he is average or worse at second and third base as well).

Gonzalez seems to be a more consistent fielder than Scutaro, but he may not be a better fielder. Certainly, it’s impossible to say who will be better in 2010. Yet Red Sox fans will continue to remember Gonzalez fondly, not least because his best year as a fielder, in 2006, just happened to be for the Boston club.

A summary of findings:

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I’ve just posted a long article on meta tagging Wordpress. The article sets out a conceptual framework for a Wordpress plugin that will treat meta tagging in content management terms. The goal is to allow blog authors and editors to add the kind of rich meta data to posts and pages that allows something like artist Jer Thorp’s visualizations of the New York Times.

Development of the actual plugin can now begin.

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Hooray for Bill Belichick. I’ll be interested to see Gregg Easterbrook’s reaction tomorrow, but I’ll back Belichick whatever the percentages. What a mensch.

Since we don’t know how well the Colts would have moved the ball had the Patriots punted, Belichick will forever take the blame for the loss, but with two minutes to go the Colts would have been  under no time pressure.

What killed the Patriots was the Colts’ penultimate touchdown drive:  79 yards in 1:49. If the Colts burn even 10 seconds more on that drive, the Patriots could have gotten the clock under the two minute warning on their succeeding series and forced the Colts to use up at least one timeout. That would have made the decision to punt a no brainer.

The other decisive factor? By the final quarter the Colts were dominating the line of scrimmage. The pressure the Patriots put on Manning in the first half simply evaporated. Belichick asked his offense to seal the win because his defense was spent.

Update: As I suspected, Belichick made the right call.

Update: Easterbrook confirms.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Football

Listening to the World Series on ESPN radio, I was annoyed at hearing, yet again, an announcer express surprise that a player with a low batting average also gets a lot of walks. Guys, taking pitches either gets you walks or gets you outs. A mystery this is not.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, New York Yankees

Dwight Garner gets the award for his review of Shooting Stars, the recently published memoir by LeBron James with Buzz Bissinger. No one deserves to be compared to Michael Jordon. But what about being compared to Walt Whitman?

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There are only two home/away splits I pay attention to: Coors Field and Petco Park. For all other reputed bandboxes and pitcher’s parks, the splits are swamped by noise. Just check ESPN’s MLB Park Factors from year to year. Sure enough, for 2009, there’s Coors Field at the top and Petco Park at the bottom. But reputed bandbox Great American Ball Park is only 4/1000 above average this season in run production, despite being as high as 153/1000 above average in the past:

2009: 1.004
2008: 1.069
2007: 1.095
2006: 1.153
2005: 1.125

Pick a run-of-the-mill park like Progressive Field in Cleveland and you will see even more variation:

2009: 0.843
2008: 0.995
2007: 1.120
2006: 0.946
2005: 0.874

Now consider that when you play a home split, you’re playing just one game out of a whole season. Not only will the quality of the opposing pitching staff overwhelm the park factor, but so will sheer randomness.

Yet I am willing to recognize that Coors Field (like Petco Park) is an extreme case. Only once since 2001 has Coors Field been lower than third in run production — when spiking run production for several other parks dropped it to 5th in 2003.

The question is, for whom do you play the split? I have Seth Smith as my fourth outfielder but have avoided playing him much because he sits two games out of six. Apparently the Rockies think more highly of Carlos Gonzalez, despite Smith’s equivalent or superior minor league numbers (compare).

Now, the Denver Post reports that Gonzalez will take his starts from the slumping Dexter Fowler:

Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler are the Rockies’ two best athletes. Using a platoon, manager Jim Tracy is hoping to create a single terrific center fielder…. Gonzalez, who lost the left field job three weeks ago to Seth Smith, is now starting in center field against right-handers.

If this holds up — and you are in a league with very deep rosters — you can play the double-split: Gonzalez, at home, against right handers. Ignore for now the fact that Gonzalez has a better road than home split — give him time.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Eric Karabell on Josh Hamilton:

Ultimately, I think Hamilton’s problem this season has been health. Then again, health is a skill, and for all we know, it’s a skill Hamilton can’t conquer.

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Baseball Crank has the link (pdf) and adds his own comments.

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I agree with Rob Neyer. Tim Wakefield doesn’t have the stats, but the All Star game is bigger than that:

I want to see Tim Wakefield pitch in the All-Star Game. He’s a good guy, and historically unique, and I’ve been avidly following the ups and downs of his career since he arrived in the majors 17 years ago. I think an All-Star Game that has room for Tim Wakefield is a better All-Star Game.

The Red Sox used to line up their starters so that Tim Wakefield would follow Curt Schilling. The idea was to keep opposing hitters off balance through a three-game series.

Now Joe Maddon gets to do the same thing in miniature. Sometime in the later innings, after the NL sluggers have faced Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and few other flamethrowers, after their bats are catching up, Maddon will send out Wakefield for an inning of 60 mph knucklers — and the most effective 72 mph fastball in the majors.

Then he’ll send out Jonathan Papelbon and his 97 mph fastball.

Update: Well, Maddon didn’t use Wakefield. Maybe in a 3-3 ballgame, Maddon figured he’d save Wakefield for the 12th – 15th innings. And maybe he didn’t want to give Victor Martinez a heart attack.

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