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Dumb Math Makes for Dumb Ethics

Posted by Henry on April 14, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Strategy

AJ Mass has a terribly wrongheaded column up at the moment. Like many misguided efforts, it starts with bad math:

In one of my recent chats, Sean from Los Angeles posed the following question to me: “Is it unwise to bench a player, thus leaving a position empty, in a head-to-head league?”

Bizarrely, Mass answers no, then, even more bizarrely, explains that being an innumerate is unethical:

Even though the mathematical answer probably is yes, the fact remains that such a move shouldn’t be allowed. And to his credit, Sean realized that such a move was unethical. Let’s face the facts, folks. If the rules of your league describe a starting lineup as having X number of players, including a catcher, then starting “X minus 1″ players, with no catchers, is illegal.

Assuming a default head-to-head league, the answer to Sean’s question is yes, it is unwise, and the answer to Mass is no, it is not unethical to play by fantasy rules.

On the math question, Mass buys into the gambler’s fallacy, assuming that Martin’s 0 for 4 yesterday means an 0 for 4 today. The problem is that no one knows when Martin will break out of his slump. When he does, he will put up numbers. Every time Sean sits his catcher, he loses an opportunity to add to his score in the cumulative fantasy categories. This is especially misguided for a catcher who actually steals bases.

On the ethical point, Mass argues by analogy. A real baseball manager can’t choose not to start a catcher, therefore it is an unethical tactic in fantasy. Of course, a real baseball manager has a backup catcher, an unlikely luxury for an owner with a 21-player fantasy roster. Mass also forgets that most commissioner use a service to run their leagues. A service like ESPN Fantasy Baseball. We expect our owners to play by preconfigured settings, not by the qualms of a fantasy Ford Frick. There are no asterisks in fantasy baseball.

Update: Mass responds to his critics in this week’s column.

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