Every year, Baseball Crank produces his established win shares. This evaluation of player capability as a factor of team win/loss record is not fantasy-focused. Great players on bad teams don’t evaluate well.
But it is still a good resource for strategic thinking. First, good teams make good players better. Hitters are more likely to hit with runners on base — and score once they make it on base. Pitchers are more likely to get wins if supported by good hitters and a good bullpen. So thinking of players in the context of the team provides a way to assess off-season moves and rookie call-ups. Second, Baseball Crank is a smart guy who has plenty to say about individual players.
Consider some of the comments from this year’s ESWL (just scroll down):
- Jeff Francis may be harder to replace than most teams’ aces, but he still will never contribute as much positively to the Rockies as a guy in another park who can throw 20 more innings and exert more influence on the game.
- Given that [Yadier] Molina is only 25, it may turn out that he will hit some after all; his brother Bengie didn’t hit until he was 28.
- [Derek] Jeter … seems on the path of slow, gradual decline, with age starting to eat away around the corners of several of his assets, breaking down his weak defense and stripping some of his speed and power. I expect Jeter to continue to be productive into his late 30s, like similar hitters like Paul Molitor and Pete Rose; just a little less like the Jeter of old.
- I can’t add much to the Joba [Chamberlain] saga except to note the obvious that his future path will probably be determined less by his own performance than by Mussina’s and by Mariano’s health.
- Dontrelle Willis has escaped the Marlins’ woeful defense (well, except for Cabrera) that contributed to a terrible .682 DER last year, but defense alone didn’t drive up Willis’ rates of homers, walks and line drives allowed (his HR rate nearly tripled since 2005), nor the decline in his K rate. This season will tell us a lot about whether Willis is healthy or not — if he is, he seems a good turnaround candidate, but the markers pointing to latent arm injuries have been flashing red for a while.
This is a resource most useful for draft preparation, but it is also a good filter for making mid-season adjustments.

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