So writes my brother:

He has no power, diminishing range and he made several painful mental mistakes in last night’s game. Fortunately only the lack of power impacts my fantasy team. But who do the Yankees have in the pipeline for next season?

The thing about Derek Jeter is that he has been aging for a while. What masked his decline was an outlier year in 2006. Here’s Jeter’s OPS, and steals from 1999 – 2007, not including 2006:

1999: .990 OPS, 19 SB
2000: .897 OPS, 22 SB
2001: .857 OPS, 27 SB
2002: .794 OPS, 32 SB
2003: .843 OPS, 11 SB (in 119 games)
2004: .823 OPS, 23 SB
2005: .839 OPS, 14 SB
2007: .840 OPS, 15 SB

Clearly this is a player who stepped down a notch about 6 years ago. The 2006 year, however, messes up the picture:

1999: .990 OPS, 19 SB
2000: .897 OPS, 22 SB
2001: .857 OPS, 27 SB
2002: .794 OPS, 32 SB
2003: .843 OPS, 11 SB
2004: .823 OPS, 23 SB
2005: .839 OPS, 14 SB
2006: .900 OPS, 34 SB
2007: .840 OPS, 15 SB

With an OPS of .732 to date in 2008, Jeter may just be having a poor start, or he may have stepped down another notch. After 2001, excepting 2006, Jeter’s OPS slipped below .850 for good. Perhaps 2008 is the year that his OPS slips below .800 for good.

That said, Jeter has two secondary qualities that always add to his value. First, the Yankees always score lots of runs. Second, other than in 2003, he never gets injured. Until this year.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, New York Yankees, Player Analysis

When the fellow said “I’d rather be lucky than good” he was talking about wins in baseball.

Last week the player who was both lucky and good was Takashi Saito.

Considering how hard wins are to find, Saito put up what appears to be a unique fantasy line (scroll down):

2 wins, 2 saves, 8 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.46 WHIP, 4.1 IP

How unusual is this? In the 12-team Mynci, through 8 weeks, there have actually been 3 other relievers to post two wins in one week:

Jonathan Papelbon, Week 5 (April 28 – May 4): 2 wins, 1 save, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.46 WHIP, 4.1 IP
Tom Gordon, Week 4 (April 21 – 27): 2 wins, 0 saves, 4 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 3.0 IP
Bobby Jenks, Week 4 (April 21 - 27): 2 wins, 0 saves, 1K, 0.00 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 2.2 IP

While Papelbon’s Week 5 was surprisingly similar, Saito’s Ks and conversion factor (win, save, save, win) make his effort that much more exceptional.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Never underestimate the ability of a professional athlete to come back from injury.

I learned this in my first fantasy baseball league, back in 1995. The great steal in the draft (not by me) was Ron Gant, the Cincinnati outfielder who had missed the entire 1994 season with a broken leg. When that league broke up at the All Star break (that’s another story), Gant had tallied 20 home runs and 54 RBIs in just 64 games. He had an on-base percentage of .393 and slugged .613 for an OPS of 1.006. 

Now it’s Francisco Liriano‘s turn. In 2006 Liriano posted a 2.16 ERA, 12 wins, and 144 Ks in just 121 innings. Then he developed arm troubles, had Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2007 season.

He was ineffective early this season and the Twins sent him to the minors. He hasn’t been bad in his most recent starts at AAA Rochester, so he’s back for another try in the majors. But the numbers aren’t all that reassuring. Compared to his previous minor league numbers, his walks are way up and his strikeouts are way down. Even my Ron Gant experience can’t convince me to pick him up.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Here’s one:

You can find them here.

Too bad they’re ugly.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Design

Finally someone in the Mynci signed Aaron Laffey. His ESPN ownership is at 23% and not moving, despite his stunning numbers — 1.35 ERA and .086 WHIP in 26.2 innings. Part of the downside is the mumbling from Cleveland that he won’t stay in the rotation once Jake Westbrook returns from the DL. Another negative is his lack of strikeouts. On paper he looks very average.

Maybe Laffey is channeling the ghost of Greg Maddux in Atlanta, but with a minor-league ERA of 3.35 and WHIP of 1.26 Laffey’s major-league numbers this season are due for a big correction.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Efficient Market Theory says that financial information is processed so aggressively that individuals can’t outperform the market average. It doesn’t matter that the information is not always good information. Here’s economics blogger Megan McArdle on the subject:

…when there are errors or information asymmetries, they tend to attract a lot of people trying to make money off of them. They rapidly bid down the arbitrage opportunity to zero…. Even if you have identified a price anomaly, you may not be able to act on that information. I am acquainted with someone who shorted the stock market in 2000 and made a killing. Unfortunately, he also shorted it in 1997, 1998, and 1999, and was very close to being totally bankrupt before the market went south. As traders like to put it, “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.

This last point is key, which is where I slide this idea toward fantasy baseball. It is impossible to predict future performance, even for the best players. Who knew Alex Rodriguez would get injured? Who knew Chipper Jones would stay healthy? Breakouts are even harder to predict. Cliff Lee, anyone? 

Even in the small market represented by a 12-team league with reasonably active owners, great players will not be readily exposed. Some 200 to 300 players will be drafted, meaning all the remaining free agents are flawed in some way — either they are mediocre or high risk.

My choice is to go after the high risk players, which generally means going after the slumping, the inexperienced, or the oft-injured. 

For example, Willy Taveras is a mediocre player. He has 15 stolen bases and is owned by 98.1% of all ESPN leagues. But he also has an OBP of .302 and no guaranteed spot in the Rockies starting lineup. If you’re looking for stolen bases, maybe Fred Lewis, 19% ownership, is the better gamble. He has a career .823 OPS in the majors and 10 steals in 13 attempts. he’s been slumping recently, but that’s good. It means he’s more likely to be available.

Of course, he could just keep slumping. And Taveras could start playing like he did in 2007. You don’t know. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Comments (5)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis, Strategy

Mike Mussina was available. I picked up Andy Sonnanstine.

Mike Mussina was available. I picked up Dana Eveland.

Mike Mussina was available. I picked up Kevin Slowey.

Milke Mussina is still available.

Why not pick up Mussina (17.8% owned in ESPN leagues) when he’s pitching well for a team that should generate wins? Why not pick up Tom Glavine (11% owned)? Because these guys are history. Literally. When Mussina broke into the big leagues, Orioles teammate Cal Ripken was almost five full seasons from breaking Lou Gehrig’s consecutive games record. When Glavine was called up to the Braves, his teammates included Doyle Alexander, Phil Niekro, and Ken Griffey. Senior.

Despite a great 2006 season, Mussina has a 4.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last five seasons. His strikeouts per 9 IP declined from over 7 in 2004 – 2006, to 5.4 in 2007 and 4.2 so far this season.

But declining skills are not the issue. The issue is minimal upside. At the end of the season, I don’t want my fifth starter to be a predictable veteran. I want my fifth starter to be another Fausto Carmona – the pitcher last year’s Mynci champions signed on July 2, 2007. That means keep gambling.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Andy Sonnastine was dreadful this week. His control did not serve owners well as he posted 10 hits and 1 walk in 6 innings on Tuesday, followed by 8 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings last night. My strategy of trading off ERA for WHIP was overwhelmed by ineptitude.

Digger deeper into this hole line of analysis, let me introduce Kevin Slowey. Coming off a decent rookie campaign, Slowey has had two starts this season, bracketing a DL-stint, resulting in a 6.48 ERA, and a 0.96 WHIP.

But if there’s any player who merits consideration for WHIP, Slowey is it. Through 2007, his minor-league WHIP was 0.86. Last season before his major-league call-up, he posted a 1.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 15 AAA starts.

The key difference between those numbers and what he’s done in the majors is in home runs given up. In the majors he’s given up 2.28 HR per 9 IP. In last year’s AAA season the rate was 0.27. What he accomplishes this season will depend a lot on the mean to which he reverts.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

I was listening to the WEEI radio broadcast of the Celtics-Cavaliers game last night and heard the following exchange between color commentator Cedric Maxwell and play-by-play host Sean Grande. It starts with Maxwell explaining Ray Allen’s shooting woes:

Maxwell: It’s like he has the whole weight of the world on his shoulders. It’s like Damocles over his head.

Grande: You mean the Sword of Damocles, right? It’s not like Damocles himself is over his head.

Maxwell: I mean like there’s a moon pie, up high in the rafters, going to hit him in the face.

Grande: A moon pie?

Maxwell: You know what a moon pie is, don’t you?

I’m writing this from memory, but I swear it’s close to verbatim.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Art, Basketball, Poetry

Picking up where I left off yesterday, if I was looking for a catcher, the sort by plate appearances isn’t a bad place to start.

Here’s the top 15 catchers by total plate appearances with percent-ownership in ESPN leagues:

1. Russell Martin: 142 PA, 100% owned
2. Kurt Suzuki: 140 PA, 35.5%
3. Geovany Soto: 132 PA, 100%
4. Brian McCann: 131 PA, 100%
5. Ivan Rodriguez: 126 PA, 96.5%
6. Josh Bard: 120 PA, 0.6%
6. Jason Kendall: 120 PA, 15.8%
6. Joe Mauer: 120 PA, 100%
9. Yadier Molina: 116 PA, 5.3%
10. A.J. Pierzynski: 115 PA, 84.3%
11. Bengie Molina:113 PA, 100%
12. Ramon Hernandez: 111 PA, 23.2%
13. Gerald Laird: 107 PA, 0.9%
14. Kenji Johjima: 105 PA, 29.4%
14. Jason Varitek: 105 PA, 58.4%

In the top ten, four players stand out: Suzuki, Bard, Kendall, and Yadier Molina. One or more of these should be available in most leagues. If not, I’ll add the little-owned Laird to the list, despite the fact that he’s about to start losing time to Jarrod Saltalamacchia. This is how they look on offense:

Suzuki: 36 for 127, 12 runs, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 1 steal, .350 OBP
Bard: 22 for 105, 8 runs, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 0 steals, .303 OBP
Kendall: 30 for 105, 14 runs 0 HR, 10 RBI, 1 steal, .361 OBP
Molina: 32 for 106, 7 runs, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 0 steals, .353 OBP
Laird: 26 for 97, 14 runs, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 0 steals, .324 OBP

These aren’t great players, but their playing time offers promise. First, it demonstrates that they have the confidence of their managers; someone besides their moms thinks they should start. Second, just by hacking away at the plate every day, they’re bound to drive in a few runs or even score on occasion.

Surprisingly, only Bard and Laird really draw down your average (or OBP). Even they are worth the pain (really). Certainly Laird has some pop. And while Bard plays in a terrible hitter’s park, has little power, and mostly bats eighth in front of a pitcher, his career average is .270 and his career OBP is .338, so he could improve. To be honest, I wouldn’t touch him, but he’s better than no catcher at all.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Geovany Soto is looking like one of the better fantasy backstops this season. Not only is he hitting well, but he’s playing almost every single day. In plate appearances, Soto is third in the majors for catchers after Russell Martin and Kurt Suzuki.

1. Russell Martin: 142 PA in 34 Games (9 PA as a 3B, 2 as a pinch hitter)
2. Kurt Suzuki: 140 PA in 33 Games
3. Geovany Soto: 132 PA in 31 Games (2 PA as a pinch hitter)
4. Brian McCann: 131 PA in 32 Games (2 PA as a pinch hitter)
5. Ivan Rodriguez: 126 PA in 30 Games

Rodriguez is the exception that proves the rule, as the only one of the top five that is over the age of 25.

The question with all these guys is whether or not they run out of gas in September.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Here they are, the 2008 Buckets 5th (and 6th) starters:

Rich Hill (Drafted 10th Round, Dropped May 3)
Ubaldo Jimenez (Drafted 21st Round, Dropped April 27)
Hong-Chih Kuo (Added April 14, Dropped April 27)
Scott Olsen (Added April 27, Dropped April 30)
Dana Eveland (Added May 3)
Andy Sonnanstine (Added May 3)

Filling out the rotation is the most difficult problem in fantasy baseball. In a weekly head-to-head league you need a minimum of five starters to get seven starts some of the time; you need six starters to get seven starts consistently. Many owners add and drop one or two starters every week to hit that limit, or better, to double-up on Sunday and get eight starts. I can’t say that I’m much different. I just do it in slow motion.

Where do these throwers come from? Usually the free agent list casts up two options.

The high velocity guy with no control. Think Daniel Cabrera.

Or, the control guy with no stuff. Think Paul Byrd.

Rookie and sophomore pitchers are the wild card. They often fall into the Cabrera category — see Jimenez, Hill, and Kuo, above. Velocity is why they are in the majors. I know one owner who consistently grabs minor-league call-ups and slots them in for their lonely single starts. The theory is that the unknown rookie, pumped on adrenalin, will pitch at least one great game before major league hitters figure out his weaknesses.

With Sonnanstine I’m trying something different. Baseball fans are conditioned to evaluate pitchers by ERA, it’s a built-in filter. In fantasy, median-ERA pitchers with a good WHIP are often available. Sonnanstine, for example. As a minor-leaguer he posted a 1.00 WHIP over 495 IP, with an average of only 1.36 walks per nine IP. That’s promising.

Correspondingly, thinking about WHIP is why I only gave Olsen one start before dropping him (perhaps to my regret). His minor league average of 3.55 walks per nine IP reminds me too much of the number five and number six starters that I drafted.

Comments (2)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Most fantasy baseball commentary of the “who’s hot” variety is useless. There is no extrapolation of next week’s performance from last week’s streak.

Consider Conor Jackson’s recent weekly lines:

Week 2: 6 runs, 0 home runs, 5 RBI, 0 steals, .381 OBP
Week 3: 10 runs, 3 home runs, 10 RBI, 1 steal, .519 OBP
Week 4: 3 runs, 0 home runs, 3 RBI, 0 steals, .323 OBP

Or compare Scott Olsen and Jon Lester. Entering this week, Olsen had much superior statistics:

Lester: 1 win, 2 losses, 5.42 ERA, 16 Ks in 32.2 IP
Olsen: 3 win, 0 losses, 2.06 ERA, 13 Ks in 35.0 IP

If you dropped Lester to start Olsen this week, you may still have a hangover. That’s the point of this post. Chasing stats will entice you to destruction. It leads to reactive, high-risk, short-term thinking. Don’t do it.

Of course, that statement begs the question: if you don’t chase stats, how do you improve your team? Some players will get hot and stay hot. How long do you wait to be convinced?

The short answer is: You don’t know. No one knows.

The long answer is: Expand your analysis. A week of data is meaningless. Look at the player’s season and career numbers and consider: 

• Was he once a lauded prospect?
• Is he recovering from an old injury?
• Do scouting reports or splits indicate that he has fixed a weakness?
• Is he on a new team or been surrounded by new teammates?
• Has he performed like this before for multiple seasons?

I can’t emphasize that last point enough. Even an entire season is a small sample set when you’re trying to predict future performance. Oliver Perez had a 2.99 ERA in 2004, his only season between 2003 and 2006 with an ERA under 5. Melvin Mora had two plus .900 OPS years in 2003 and 2004, a level to which he has never returned.

This is why you needed to shut out ESPN analyst Matthew Berry’s hype for Corey Hart over Grady Sizemore back in March. Here’s an example of Berry’s logic:

…look at their numbers from last season:

Sizemore: 628 at-bats, 118 runs, 24 home runs, 78 RBIs, 33 steals, .277 average
Hart: 505 at-bats, 86 runs, 24 home runs, 81 RBIs, 23 steals, .295 average.

Hart had 123 fewer at-bats and still beat or tied Sizemore in three of five categories.

Now, let’s check in on them this year, through Sunday.

Sizemore: 48 at-bats, 5 runs, 1 home run, 8 RBIs, 3 steals, .313 average.
Hart: 44 at-bats, 8 runs, 0 home runs, 5 RBIs, 3 steals, .295 average.

Sizemore is off to a slightly better start, but my statement is not nearly as crazy as you think, now is it?

Both players now have more than 100 at-bats and Grady Sizemore is still off to a better start:

Sizemore: 29 for 105, 16 runs, 3 home runs, 14 RBIs, 7 steals, .394 OBP.
Hart: 31 for 103, 13 runs, 1 home run, 12 RBIs, 4 steals, .360 OBP.

This is not to say that Hart can’t have a better season than Sizemore. Who knows? But Sizemore has repeated this performance at the major league level three years in a row. Who would you want to put your money on?

Comments (1)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis, Strategy