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Send in the Clowns

Posted by Henry on May 7, 2008 at 11:18 am
Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Here they are, the 2008 Buckets 5th (and 6th) starters:

Rich Hill (Drafted 10th Round, Dropped May 3)
Ubaldo Jimenez (Drafted 21st Round, Dropped April 27)
Hong-Chih Kuo (Added April 14, Dropped April 27)
Scott Olsen (Added April 27, Dropped April 30)
Dana Eveland (Added May 3)
Andy Sonnanstine (Added May 3)

Filling out the rotation is the most difficult problem in fantasy baseball. In a weekly head-to-head league you need a minimum of five starters to get seven starts some of the time; you need six starters to get seven starts consistently. Many owners add and drop one or two starters every week to hit that limit, or better, to double-up on Sunday and get eight starts. I can’t say that I’m much different. I just do it in slow motion.

Where do these throwers come from? Usually the free agent list casts up two options.

The high velocity guy with no control. Think Daniel Cabrera.

Or, the control guy with no stuff. Think Paul Byrd.

Rookie and sophomore pitchers are the wild card. They often fall into the Cabrera category — see Jimenez, Hill, and Kuo, above. Velocity is why they are in the majors. I know one owner who consistently grabs minor-league call-ups and slots them in for their lonely single starts. The theory is that the unknown rookie, pumped on adrenalin, will pitch at least one great game before major league hitters figure out his weaknesses.

With Sonnanstine I’m trying something different. Baseball fans are conditioned to evaluate pitchers by ERA, it’s a built-in filter. In fantasy, median-ERA pitchers with a good WHIP are often available. Sonnanstine, for example. As a minor-leaguer he posted a 1.00 WHIP over 495 IP, with an average of only 1.36 walks per nine IP. That’s promising.

Correspondingly, thinking about WHIP is why I only gave Olsen one start before dropping him (perhaps to my regret). His minor league average of 3.55 walks per nine IP reminds me too much of the number five and number six starters that I drafted.

Comments

[...] Andy Sonnastine was dreadful this week. His control did not serve owners well as posted 10 hits and 1 walk in 6 innings on Tuesday, followed by 8 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings last night. The strategy of tradinging off ERA for WHIP took a beating. [...]

Posted by by skidpad » Send off the Clown on May 12, 2008 at 11:34 am  

[...] I described in an earlier post, one way I’m trying to get an edge in pitching is to attack the WHIP category. As baseball [...]

Posted by by skidpad » How’s That WHIP Thing Going? on June 16, 2008 at 6:36 pm  

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