In the comments to my Efficient Markets post, Shayne points out that one way to apply market efficiency thinking to fantasy baseball is to minimize transactions and line-up changes. You can’t outguess the market so don’t try.
He’s right. If you’ve evaluated and signed a particular player for a particular reason you should be ready to ride out the slumps. Over time the better player should produce.
The gambling strategy I propose applies to the players who are marginal to start with. If you need to get lucky to win your league (which you probably do), you need to find the marginal player with the biggest upside among the larger group of the consistently marginal.
Good luck on that.
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