One of the more interesting non-fantasy facts about the Teixeira for Kotchman (and the other guy) trade is that both Mark Teixeira and Casey Kotchman are good fielders.

Actually, Teixeira is a great fielder. Teixeira has won two gold gloves and could be in line for another, if Albert Pujols doesn’t beat him out. And while Kotchman looks just good this year, in 2007, he had the best zone rating in the major leagues.

This is one reason Teixeira was never a good fit for the Red Sox. The Red Sox already have a good fielder at first. Plus they have a full time DH.

Kevin Youkilis could probably play shortstop better than Derek Jeter, but we’ll never know.

Update: I significantly rewrote the second paragraph when I looked at the 2008 numbers instead of the 2007.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Fantasy Baseball, New York Yankees, Player Analysis

I read recently, in Gregory Clark’s A Farewell to Alms, that the diet of the rural English worker before the industrial revolution probably delivered 4500 calories a day. That’s the kind of energy you need if you’re going to do manual labor 12 to 16 hours out of every 24.

That’s what I need to plan for my next vacation, if I’m going to keep up with the six-year-old and the four-year-old and Sir Edmund one-year-old. Rest is hard to guarantee, but 4500 calories a day should be easy.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Life

Here’s another angle on “just showing up” as applied to player analysis.

Baseball Crank gives us a rundown of the best RBI producers, by percentage:

I decided to divide the number of RBI with men in scoring position by the number of plate appearances each player had with men in scoring position. It’s not a perfect measurement, since (1) this excludes driving in runners from first and (2) players on good offensive teams are more likely to bat with multiple men in scoring position and/or with a man also on first.

Number one is Jesus Flores with 36 RBIs in 61 chances.

Who? Jesus Flores, the Washington Nationals second-year catcher.

For fantasy baseball, the RBI conversion rate is compelling, but the most important number in the table is “plate appearances … with men in scoring position.”

Below are the first six names in the list. When you hit Josh Hamilton you see my point. He has a ton of RBIs because he has a ton of opportunity. He starts. He plays for Texas. He bats third. And he’s been lucky. With just 80 more at bats than Mike Lowell, who mostly bats fifth for the high-scoring Red Sox, he has had 51 more RBI opportunities.

Jesus Flores, on the other hand, starts, but gets rest days. He plays for Washington. He mostly bats 6th. The opportunities are simply not the same.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis, Strategy

A.J. Mass wonders whether rotisserie stats correlate to actual MLB win-loss records:

Do the categories we use to determine the best teams in a fantasy league translate at all to what makes up a winning real-life baseball team? Should we be using a different measuring stick to make a better overview of real-life and fantasy baseball player values, or have we already perfected the art?

Mass drops wins as a statistical category since it maps directly to real-world wins, resulting in the following 4 x 4 configuration: average, RBIs, home runs, steals x  saves, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP.

Mass then has some fun with wacky stat configurations, but I have a simpler question. What happens when you swap OBP for average. A comparison is shown below.

American League:

National League:

There are a few cases where OBP seems more accurate. In particular, Cincinnati and Oakland use walks to their advantage while San Francisco, Houston, and Kansas City pay the price for impatience. Florida and Minnesota however, don’t fit the model. Whatever those two teams are doing to rack up the wins, OBP is not it.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Strategy

“Ninety percent of success is just showing up” ~Woody Allen.

In a standard 5 x 5 league, seven of ten categories are cumulative. For hitting: runs, home runs, RBIs, and steals. For pitching: wins, saves, and strikeouts. In hitting, any marginal player has a better chance of adding to one or more of the cumulative categories than hurting you in AVG or OBP. In pitching, the cumulative uptick of saves, strikeouts, and wins justifes absorbing the poor outings of otherwise borderline closers or speedball starters.

Therefore, much success in fantasy baseball derives from the grunt work of roster assignment. This is especially true in rotisserie formats. It is especially true in leagues that allow daily roster changes.

In July and August, roster assignment creates separation. These are the months when people pay less attention to work. They go on vacation. Sometimes the beach house doesn’t have broadband. Meanwhile, owners whose teams are slipping out of contention are less likely to log in every day.

By just showing up, you can swap in a second catcher on the day game after the night game. You can swap in backups on Monday and Thursday travel days. In pitching you can track starts against whatever limits you are using (i.e. weekly start, season inning-pitched) and adjust accordingly.

Maximize your opportunities. If anything, that is my fantasy manifesto.

Comments (1)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Strategy

Jason Grey has a short list of fantasy “value” all stars — players undrafted, or drafted late, who have far exceeded expectations.

Grey determines his roster by comparing each player’s “final average draft position (ADP) for all ESPN leagues” with a mathematical rating of “earned fantasy value.” While this approach leaves out “turnaround” players like Kevin Slowey who have recovered from early season doldrums to post good May and June numbers, it still results in a benchmark list of fantasy player steals.

To highlight the smarts of the Mynci, I thought I’d compare Grey’s list to Mynci action and see how I and my fellow owners compare.

C – Ryan Doumit, Pirates (ESPN ADP: Undrafted; YTD Earned Value Rank: 59)
Mynci - Added April 8 by HO.

1B – Aubrey Huff, Orioles (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 85)
Mynci - Added March 31 by PLIM. Dropped May 9 by PLIM. Added May 12 by PLIM. Dropped May 18 by PLIM. Added May 27 by CUDA. Dropped June 5 by CUDA. Added June 17 by P. No one was convinced by Huff at first, and for good reason. From April 10 through June 8 Huff’s OPS fell from 1.067 to .740 and it wasn’t until June 19 that it slipped back above .800.

2B – Mark DeRosa, Cubs (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 72)
Mynci – Added April 19 by MM. Dropped May 8 by MM. Added May 11 by BUMS.

3B – Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 56 )
Mynci - Added April 8 by MM. Dropped May 18 by MM. Added June 3 by CUDA.

SS – Cristian Guzman, Nationals (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 74)
Mynci - Added April 30 by SS. Dropped May 4 by SS. Added May 12 by CORN.

MI – Jose Lopez, Mariners (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 103)
Mynci – Added April 8 by HO. Dropped April 11 by HO. Added April 13 by SS. Dropped June 13 by SS. The story here is that Lopez almost never walks and the Mynci is an OBP league. When you exchange a good .301 AVG for a terrible .320 OBP, all Lopez offers is a few RBIs. He is a one-category hitter.

CI – Jorge Cantu, Marlins (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 96)
Mynci – Added April 24 by CORN.

OF – Carlos Quentin, White Sox (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 19)
Mynci – Added April 26 by MM.

OF – Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 48)
Mynci – Added April 21 by MM. Dropped April 21 by MM. Added May 10 by HO. Dropped July 1 by HO. Added July 6 by BUS.

OF – Milton Bradley, Rangers (ADP: 226.9; EVR: 27)
Mynci – Drafted by CORN (198). Dropped April 29 by CORN. Added May 5 by CORN. The CORN inexplicably almost lost a draft day steal, but no one took advantage.

OF – J.D. Drew, Red Sox (ADP: 213.4; EVR: 41)
Mynci – Added April 5 by MSOX.

OF – Nate McLouth, Pirates (ADP: 193.2; EVR: 25)
Mynci – Drafted by MM (240).

UT – Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox (ADP: 177.2; EVR: 47)
Mynci – Drafted by CUDA (167).

SP – Edinson Volquez, Reds (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 12)
Mynci - Added April 6 by MM.

SP – Cliff Lee, Indians (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 11)
Mynci - Added April 12 by MM.

SP- Ervin Santana, Angels (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 39)
Mynci - Added March 31 by PLIM. Dropped April 13 by PLIM. Added April 20 by PLIM.

SP – Justin Duchscherer, Athletics (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 40 )
Mynci – Added April 11 by MSOX.

SP – Joe Saunders, Angels (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 79)
Mynci – Added April 9 by HO.

SP – John Danks, White Sox (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 104)
Mynci – Added April 22 by HO. Dropped May 28 by HO. Added May 31 by BUS. Traded June 8 BUS to PLIM.

MR – Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 170)
Mynci – Added April 14 by P. Dropped April 27 by P. Added May 8 by MM. Dropped May 25 by MM. Added June 1 by MM. Dropped June 7 by MM. Added June 10 by CORN. I originally added Kuo as a starter. That didn’t turn out well. Otherwise, in a head-to-head league he is of minimal value, contributing perhaps 4Ks and a tickmark improvement in ERA and WHIP each week, but no wins and no saves.

CL – Jon Rauch, Nationals (ADP: Undrafted; EVR: 123)
Mynci – Drafted by RFP (254). Dropped April 13 by RFP. Added April 17 by HO. This represents a wrenching missed opportunity by RFP. On April 12 Rauch had an ERA of 9.00, 1 save, and 1 blown save. Starting with a save on April 13, Rauch never looked back.

CL – Kerry Wood, Cubs (ADP: 185.9; EVR: 74)
Mynci – Drafted by BUS (166).

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Here are two things I learned from the Red Sox radio broadcast this evening:

1. Johnny Damon has the highest batting average in the majors since May 20th (not May 19th?)
2. Dustin Pedroia is the hottest player in baseball (not Johnny Damon?).

They are both true. Pay no attention.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees

In fantasy baseball, I hate playing players from the Red Sox. It ruins the real game for me. Instead of following the action, I get distracted by the individual at bat or inning pitched. I do not want to care if a player gets a walk instead of a hit. I do not want to be rooting for a player to steal a base when the team is up by nine runs.

I hate playing players from the American League East. Because those players often play Red Sox. I do not want to have mixed feelings about a Red Sox win. Is it okay if Aubrey Huff hits a home run when the Sox are already ahead by 6? I do not want to think like that.

Another problem is this: I know too much about the Sox. Listening to games on the radio I will hear about who’s in a slump, who doesn’t look sharp, who has a nagging injury, and all of this is bad information. All that matters in fantasy baseball are the numbers. Impressionistic color commentary is mind-junk.

Now, do I avoid drafting Sox players? Do I avoid the entire AL East? Not consciously. Aubrey Huff is my Paul Konerko replacement at the moment. I have several times tried to put together a deal this season for Kevin Youkilis (let’s just say I’ve lucked out with Aubrey Huff.)

But there must be a subconscious disincentive at work, a potential bias in my player analysis given that I’m definitely happy to have no Red Sox players on my fantasy team.

If ever I play a single-league competition, it must be the National League. I don’t care a whit about the National League.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Boston Red Sox, Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis