A.J. Mass wonders whether rotisserie stats correlate to actual MLB win-loss records:
Do the categories we use to determine the best teams in a fantasy league translate at all to what makes up a winning real-life baseball team? Should we be using a different measuring stick to make a better overview of real-life and fantasy baseball player values, or have we already perfected the art?
Mass drops wins as a statistical category since it maps directly to real-world wins, resulting in the following 4 x 4 configuration: average, RBIs, home runs, steals x saves, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP.
Mass then has some fun with wacky stat configurations, but I have a simpler question. What happens when you swap OBP for average. A comparison is shown below.
American League:
| Team | Offense w/AVG |
Total w/AVG |
Wins | Offense w/OBP |
Total w/OBP |
Wins |
| Boston | 51 | 97 | 57 | 52 | 98 | 57 |
| Tampa Bay | 35.5 | 76.5 | 55 | 38.5 | 79.5 | 55 |
| Toronto | 21.5 | 69.5 | 47 | 22.5 | 70.5 | 47 |
| Yankees | 35 | 68 | 50 | 36 | 69 | 50 |
| Baltimore | 31 | 49 | 45 | 32 | 50 | 45 |
| White Sox | 37 | 78.5 | 54 | 38 | 79.5 | 54 |
| Minnesota | 31.5 | 56.5 | 53 | 26.5 | 51.5 | 53 |
| Detroit | 33 | 44 | 47 | 34 | 45 | 47 |
| Kansas City | 17 | 41.5 | 43 | 11 | 35.5 | 43 |
| Cleveland | 19.5 | 37.5 | 41 | 21.5 | 39.5 | 41 |
| Angels | 26.5 | 65.5 | 57 | 25.5 | 64.5 | 57 |
| Texas | 47 | 59.5 | 50 | 46 | 58.5 | 50 |
| Oakland | 15 | 54 | 51 | 19 | 58 | 51 |
| Seattle | 19.5 | 43 | 37 | 17.5 | 41 | 37 |
National League:
| Team | Offense w/AVG |
Total w/AVG |
Wins | Offense w/OBP |
Total w/OBP |
Wins |
| Philadelphia | 52 | 93 | 52 | 55 | 96 | 52 |
| Mets | 46 | 88.5 | 51 | 46 | 88.5 | 51 |
| Atlanta | 33.5 | 69.5 | 45 | 33.5 | 69.5 | 45 |
| Florida | 45 | 66 | 50 | 41 | 62 | 50 |
| Washington | 10.5 | 29 | 36 | 10.5 | 29 | 36 |
| Cubs | 52 | 107 | 57 | 52 | 107 | 57 |
| Milwaukee | 40.5 | 84.5 | 52 | 42.5 | 86.5 | 52 |
| St. Louis | 42 | 73.5 | 53 | 42 | 73.5 | 53 |
| Houston | 39.5 | 67 | 44 | 34.5 | 62 | 44 |
| Cincinnati | 30.5 | 63 | 46 | 36.5 | 69 | 46 |
| Pittsburgh | 36.5 | 50 | 44 | 34.5 | 48 | 44 |
| Dodgers | 25.5 | 72 | 46 | 25.5 | 72 | 46 |
| Arizona | 21.5 | 71.5 | 47 | 24.5 | 74.5 | 47 |
| San Francisco | 22.5 | 62.5 | 40 | 18.5 | 58.5 | 40 |
| Colorado | 37 | 49.5 | 39 | 38 | 50.5 | 39 |
| San Diego | 9.5 | 41.5 | 37 | 9.5 | 41.5 | 37 |
There are a few cases where OBP seems more accurate. In particular, Cincinnati and Oakland use walks to their advantage while San Francisco, Houston, and Kansas City pay the price for impatience. Florida and Minnesota however, don’t fit the model. Whatever those two teams are doing to rack up the wins, OBP is not it.
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