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Output and Opportunity

Posted by Henry on July 18, 2008 at 10:44 am
Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis, Strategy

Here’s another angle on “just showing up” as applied to player analysis.

Baseball Crank gives us a rundown of the best RBI producers, by percentage:

I decided to divide the number of RBI with men in scoring position by the number of plate appearances each player had with men in scoring position. It’s not a perfect measurement, since (1) this excludes driving in runners from first and (2) players on good offensive teams are more likely to bat with multiple men in scoring position and/or with a man also on first.

Number one is Jesus Flores with 36 RBIs in 61 chances.

Who? Jesus Flores, the Washington Nationals second-year catcher.

For fantasy baseball, the RBI conversion rate is compelling, but the most important number in the table is “plate appearances … with men in scoring position.”

Below are the first six names in the list. When you hit Josh Hamilton you see my point. He has a ton of RBIs because he has a ton of opportunity. He starts. He plays for Texas. He bats third. And he’s been lucky. With just 80 more at bats than Mike Lowell, who mostly bats fifth for the high-scoring Red Sox, he has had 51 more RBI opportunities.

Jesus Flores, on the other hand, starts, but gets rest days. He plays for Washington. He mostly bats 6th. The opportunities are simply not the same.

Player RBI PA BA OBA Slug% RBI%
Jesus Flores 36 61 0.346 0.419 0.673 0.590
Jason Michaels 32 55 0.375 0.400 0.667 0.582
Mike Lowell 49 85 0.319 0.391 0.652 0.576
David DeJesus 41 72 0.460 0.500 0.683 0.569
Alexi Casilla 32 60 0.367 0.400 0.571 0.533
Josh Hamilton 71 136 0.336 0.377 0.578 0.522

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