It’s really hard to pull the trigger on big lineup changes after July. By this time of year you’ve already gone to the free agent market enough times to have examined every pretender to fantasy significance. Furthermore, the players on your roster each have more than half season of stats to back up their selection. All have either proved themselves by now or ran out of chances. Paul Konerko, who I grabbed with my number 1 waiver position on April 29, is gone as of August 2nd.

And yet, some players performing perfectly well through August will tank the rest of the year. And some players who tanked early — perhaps even Paul Konerko — will recover their stuff in September. The question is which ones.

This week I took a flyer on Fred Lewis, letting go Adam Lind who had replaced Kelly Johnson. In this process I gave up a good backup second baseman, then a great hitting prospect who seems primed to produce, and settled on a base stealer. In mind was my Wins by Category analysis of the first half. In the upcoming playoffs, currently with the top seed, I need five points a round. No more than that. Steals are worth a flyer.