I’ve compiled the wins by category numbers for the second half of the Mynci season. As before, the x-axis represents talent (the rank of each team in the category by total). The y-axis represents head-to-head outcome (the likelihood of winning a point in a weekly matchup).

In general, the previous indicators held true. Saves and Steals offered, by far, the most predictable correlation between talent and points, followed by the other cumulative categories: Strikeouts, Wins, Runs, Home Runs, and RBIs (in that order). Then came the three percentage-based stats: ERA, OBP, and WHIP.

Pitching wins is problematic. Weeks 12-22 saw a much stronger correlation of talent to points than weeks 1-11. However, the trendline is skewed by the excellent performance of the top two teams. I recall that the top team in total pitching wins (12 of 12) used a streaming strategy to routinely reach eight or nine starts. My suspicion is that correcting for starts would increase the unpredictability of the category and bring the trendline down.

For the season, the correlation of talent to points maps as follows (trendline slope in parenthesis):

Saves (y = 0.0661x)
Steals (y = 0.058x)
Runs (y = 0.047x)
Strikeouts (y = 0.0434x)
Home Runs (y = 0.0428x)
RBIs (y = 0.035x)
Wins (y = 0.0318x)
ERA (y = 0.0223x)
OBP (y = 0.0191x)
WHIP (y = 0.0099x)

Here are the charts for weeks 12-22:

Here are the charts for the full season — the average of the charts above with the charts from weeks 1-11: