Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan are supposed to be the Pittsburgh Pirate’s closers-by-committee. Both were used tonight in the final innings with Pittsburgh down a run. When a team wins as seldom as the Pirates, I guess that’s what a manager has to do.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Other teams

Yogi Berra on the passing of George Steinbrenner:

George was The Boss, make no mistake. He built the Yankees into champions and that’s something nobody can ever deny. He was a very generous, caring, passionate man. George and I had our differences, but who didn’t? We became great friends over the last decade and I will miss him very much.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, New York Yankees

David Gassko at Book of Odds has a great analysis on the continuity of closers from season to season. Essentially, for most teams, there isn’t any.

I found this link in a post at Another Cubs Blog. Author mb21 cuts to the chase:

There’s no such thing as a closer of the future.

In Moneyball Michael Lewis noted Billy Beane’s success in keeping closers on a budget. He avoided paying for the successful and generally (barring injuries and Octavio Dotel) had few problems bringing up new ones.

A corollary, I suspect, is that there’s no special value in college closers.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball

Last night Tim Wakefield passed Roger Clemens to become the all-time innings pitched leader for the Boston Red Sox. He tops an impressive list:

1. Tim Wakefield

2. Roger Clemens

3. Cy Young

4. Luis Tiant

Next up, the all-time Red Sox wins record. Clemens and Young both have 192. Wake has 177. 15 plus 1 to go.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

Because nothing says “Spring Training” like Boof Bonser’s tattoos.

Man, this makes me happy.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

The big Red Sox debate on the talk shows last weekend was the loss of Alex Gonzalez to Toronto. Gonzalez has played very good shortstop for the Red Sox, and, because he’s a lousy hitter, he was signed for cheap by the Blue Jays. Now it turns out, as rumored, that Toronto’s free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro will be Gonzalez’ replacement. As Scutaro is coming off a career year, he is getting more money and an extra year over the journeyman Gonzalez. You can count on extremely negative reaction to the swap. Everyone loves Gonzalez now. Especially his fielding.

What about Scutaro’s fielding? Sox fans don’t know. Neither do I. Almost no one knows.

After some research I’m prepared to say that Gonzalez and Scutaro are both somewhere in the muddy middle of fielders. Gonzalez may be slightly better and he’s certainly more consistent, but it’s hard to make the call. For the record, the best in 2009 was the obscure Jack Wilson. The best this decade was probably the light-hitting Adam Everett. The worst this decade is quite likely Derek Jeter (though he had his best year ever in 2009). This brings up Bill James’ seminal article, Jeter vs. Everett, which could be subtitled “the skeptic looks at fielding.” After reviewing an analysis prepared by John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, James writes:

The low defensive rating for Derek Jeter is not based on computers, it is not based on statistics, and it is not based on math. It is based on a specific observation that there are balls going through the shortstop hole against the Yankees that might very well have been fielded.

This type of analysis — in which every play in every game is examined by position — is how hardcore enthusiasts grade fielding. Two statistics that result are plus/minus and zone rating. Plus/minus evaluates how many runs score (or not) based on plays made (or not). Zone rating is a ratio of plays made compared to the number of balls hit in a player’s “zone.”

Baseball Reference provides a plus/minus rating called “Total Fielding Runs Above Average” abbreviated Rtot, or Rtot/yr when divided by 1,250 innings.

FanGraphs provides a zone rating called “Ultimate Zone Rating” abbreviated UZR, or UZR/150 when divided by 150 defensive games.

Two things stand out to me when examining these statistics. The first is that while they roughly track each other, the two ratings don’t always agree — underscoring the difficulty of evaluating fielding. The second is that for individual players, fielding varies as much as batting from year to year, if not more so. Like batting, fielding is affected by injury, age, luck, and intangibles. Everett’s wizardry in 2006 and 2007 was followed by good but not great years in 2008 and 2009. Gonzalez’s UZR/150 since 2002 (not counting 2008 when he did not play) is 10.5, 6.8, 5.0, -2.7, 16.9, 5.9, and 10.5 (for comparison, Everett achieved a high of 29.2 in 2007 and has never been lower than 11.2 as a starter).

In this company, Scutaro appears to be especially erratic. In 2006, when he played 69 games at shortstop for the Athletics, his UZR/150 was negative 28.1. Two years later, when he played 56 games at shortstop for the Blue Jays, his UZR/150 was positive 20.3. Arguably the fact that he played multiple positions every season before 2009 could be a factor — perhaps cutting into his practice and certainly lowering the sample sizes. His actual capability as a shortstop may best be reflected by his 2009 season, when he played 143 games at shortstop and achieved a UZR/150 of 1.0. In lifetime numbers, Scutaro ends up as an average fielder at shortstop with a UZR/150 of -2.9 (he is average or worse at second and third base as well).

Gonzalez seems to be a more consistent fielder than Scutaro, but he may not be a better fielder. Certainly, it’s impossible to say who will be better in 2010. Yet Red Sox fans will continue to remember Gonzalez fondly, not least because his best year as a fielder, in 2006, just happened to be for the Boston club.

A summary of findings:

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

Listening to the World Series on ESPN radio, I was annoyed at hearing, yet again, an announcer express surprise that a player with a low batting average also gets a lot of walks. Guys, taking pitches either gets you walks or gets you outs. A mystery this is not.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, New York Yankees

Baseball Crank has the link (pdf) and adds his own comments.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball

I agree with Rob Neyer. Tim Wakefield doesn’t have the stats, but the All Star game is bigger than that:

I want to see Tim Wakefield pitch in the All-Star Game. He’s a good guy, and historically unique, and I’ve been avidly following the ups and downs of his career since he arrived in the majors 17 years ago. I think an All-Star Game that has room for Tim Wakefield is a better All-Star Game.

The Red Sox used to line up their starters so that Tim Wakefield would follow Curt Schilling. The idea was to keep opposing hitters off balance through a three-game series.

Now Joe Maddon gets to do the same thing in miniature. Sometime in the later innings, after the NL sluggers have faced Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and few other flamethrowers, after their bats are catching up, Maddon will send out Wakefield for an inning of 60 mph knucklers — and the most effective 72 mph fastball in the majors.

Then he’ll send out Jonathan Papelbon and his 97 mph fastball.

Update: Well, Maddon didn’t use Wakefield. Maybe in a 3-3 ballgame, Maddon figured he’d save Wakefield for the 12th – 15th innings. And maybe he didn’t want to give Victor Martinez a heart attack.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

Whenever a team suffers a disastrous loss, the team’s fans reel. They expect the team to reel. They take the loss as evidence of some tragic weakness in the makeup of their hero. Oedipus was up 10-1 over Fate in the freakin’ seventh. How was a loss even possible?

All this anguish went for nought as the Red Sox proceeded to rally the next night, scoring 4 in the ninth to tie the Orioles, then beating them in extra innings.

Carl Bialik has the numbers. Of the two comebacks, the Orioles’ was the more improbable. Oddly, the odds against the Red Sox were slightly more extreme with the score 5-3 and two outs in the ninth then they were at the beginning of the ninth with the score 5-1.

As for fate, Jonathan Papelbon gets redemption. He doesn’t blow the save. None of the other pitchers involved in the debacle on June 30 were involved. Ramon Ramirez gets the win. The key hit is delivered by Rocco Baldelli off the bench.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

On Saturday the Providence Grays, played the Brooklyn Atlantics in a doubleheader. You can see one of the Atlantics among the Grays in the center of the photo below.

The players were happy to explain the rules and techniques of the historical game.

Each vintage baseball club models a specific year of play. The Grays emulate a championship 1884 team. The Atlantics emulate a championship 1864 team. This means different rules. In the doubleheader, the first game was played by 1864 rules, the second by 1884 rules. Most dramatically this meant one slow pitch game and one fast pitch game.

In 1864, pitching was underhand, the ball was quite soft, and an out was recorded if the ball was caught on the first bounce or on the fly.

In 1884, pitching was overhand, the ball was harder, though still softer than the current ball, and the one-bounce out rule was no longer in effect.

Catchers had masks, pads, and very small gloves.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Other teams

I once lived in Troy, New York, home of the Troy Haymakers, “One of original nine teams that formed baseball’s first all-paid professional league – the National Association…”

Providence RI, neighbor to my current home town of Pawtucket, has a somewhat more glorious baseball past as home to the Providence Grays, a member of the National League and winner of the first World’s Championship:

[The 1884 Providence Grays] were led by ace pitcher Charles “Old Hoss” Radbourn, who is still remembered for winning a record 59 games that year and leading the Grays to the pennant. When the team’s other pitcher defected to a rival league in July, it looked like the Grays’ season was over, but “Old Hoss” offered to pitch the rest of the team’s games. The Grays went on a twenty-game winning streak and blew past their hated rivals, the Boston Red Stockings.

When the season was over, the Grays had won the league title by five games. They then played the New York Metropolitans, champions of the rival American Association, in a three-game championship series, and won all three games. It wasn’t officially called the “World Series”, but the Grays became undisputed world champions.

The Providence Grays Vintage Base Ball Club recreates that 1884 team, playing to the rules of the time.

(h/t KidoInfo)

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Other teams

Daniel Bard throws two straight sliders to strike out Ryan Howard who earlier tied the game in the ninth with a home run.

Joe Castiglione says something like “The rookie pitcher has some moxie.”

I don’t think Bard is shaking off Jason Varitek.

Red Sox pitchers fanned 20 in 15 innings. Bard struck out three in the 15th (plus a hit batter) to close out the game and earn the save. (Castiglione mispeaks, saying “Bard strikes out three in the ninth.”)

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Other teams

Bat Masterson, renowned lawman and gunfighter of the old West, eventually became a renowned lawman and newspaper columnist in New York City. Among his quotes is this:

“Every dog, we are told, has his day, unless there are more dogs than days.”

In Justin Masterson’s 2009 season there have been more dogs than days this year.

Masterson is the classic case of a young pitcher who has great stuff (especially a mid-90s fastball) who can’t seem to master a whole game. He was advanced so quickly through the minor leagues that it is hard to guess what he can do as a starter. His overall minor league ERA is 3.79 and his 2.89 ERA in 9.1 innings at AAA Pawtucket in 2008 is hardly any reassurance that his subsequent 3.16 ERA in Boston that season was for real.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

The official scorer for Saturday’s Indians-Tigers game changed Asdrubal Cabrera’s double to a two-base error:

In the fifth inning Saturday, Cabrera sent a drive to left field with the bases loaded, two out and Zach Miner pitching. Left fielder Ryan Raburn broke in on the play, slipped to one knee, righted himself and gave chase.

He put a glove on the ball at the warning track, but dropped it. Official scorer Ron Kleinfelter originally called it a double and credited Cabrera with three RBI. Official scorers have 24 hours to change a call and just before gametime Sunday it was announced that Kleinfelter had changed the call to an error.

This happens, but it’s rare for a scorer to take that long to make up his mind.

In the Mynci, a 24-24 tie between the Maniacs and Corn on Sunday night became a 24-21 point for the Corn Monday morning.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Other teams

Once in a while, when the Red Sox are off, I’ll tune to the Yankees (on WPRV, AM 790) . I like the Yankees well enough and I like to follow the AL East.

The problem is listening to John Sterling’s play-by-play. Sterling may be the worst radio announcer of all time (we’re only talking 100 years). I hope he’s the worst. I hate to think there’s someone else out there that combines a more limited repertoire with the same excess of ego.

Admittedly I’m biased by experience. I grew up in the deciduous swamp of upstate New York listening to Yankee broadcasts by Frank Messer, Bill White, and Phil Rizzuto. From left to right that trio produced a blend of great playcalling and great storytelling. Later at night, through the crackle and hum of the analog band, I could pick up Radio Hall of Fame announcer Ernie Harwell on WJR calling Tigers games.

Now I mostly listen to Red Sox games, broadcast by the solid duo of Joe Castiglione and Dave O’Brien. Castiglione has the traditional baseball delivery, gravelly and conversational, while O’Brien is a true professional — accurate, descriptive, and unobtrusive. It’s not surprising that O’Brien also calls games for ESPN.

Sterling does not match up well. It is not his insipid trademark calls, nor his proudly banal understanding of the game that make him awful. It is his lack of cadence and flow.

Thuhhhh pitch.

Sterling must say that 100 times a game. It’s like listening to a man clear his throat for three hours.

I have never noticed Castiglione and O’Brien coughing up a verbal tic like that, so I paid attention the last few games to their technique. What they do is simple. Instead of fixating on “the pitch,” they describe the context of the pitch. They might mention the count, the pitcher’s delivery, the actions of baserunners. Sometimes they don’t describe “the pitch” until after the pitch. Here’s a mix of their calls, the first five from O’Brien, the second five from Castiglione:

Jacoby edging off first base and Garza delivers…
The 2-1 to Ortiz…
The 2-2 on the way to Ortiz…
Bailey takes a strike on the inside corner…
The righty sidearms one for ball one…

The 2-1 pitch…
Count full, runner goes, the pitch is taken low…
Masterson is ready, slings it in there…
The tall right hander is ready, here it is…
At the belt, here it comes, high ball three…

Yes, there’s repetition. But it’s the kind of reptition within variation that makes for good music. Cadence and flow.

Comments (2)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees

I missed this story on Pitch f/x a year ago:

Since 2006, Major League Baseball Advanced Media LP, baseball’s swashbuckling digital arm, has quietly spent approximately $4 million installing sensor cameras in major-league stadiums that can track and record the trajectory of every pitch. The system, called Pitch f/x, made its public debut in the 2006 postseason. This season it became operational in all 30 major-league parks.

Now The Daily Fix provides a link-rich synopsis of the history of Pitch f/x (above) and the work of people like Dave Allen at Baseball Analysts in mining the data. Allen’s work is collected here, in reverse chronological order.

(From a design perspective, note the dramatic difference in readability between the rainbow-wig Run Value heat maps and the gray-scale Home Run Rate heat maps.)

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball

Derek Jeter misplays Jacoby Ellsbury’s pop fly in the 8th.

That title is straight from Joe Castiglione’s radio call.

But Dustin Pedroia strikes out. Inning over.

Oddly, Joe Girardi brought Mariano Rivera in after Jonathan Albaladejo got one strike on Ellsbury.

Comments (1)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees

What are the odds that the standings below end up exactly the reverse order at the end of the season?

American League East:

Toronto 7-3
Baltimore 6-3
Yankees 5-5
Tampa Bay 4-5
Boston 3-6

American League West:

Seattle 7-2
Oakland 4-5
Texas 4-5
Los Angeles 3-5

I’d say not bad.

Comments (1)  |  Filed under: Baseball

The twelve Mynci teams drafted 23 players each. Our opening day rosters, including 11 players on the DL, totaled 287 players. I’ll call these “value” players.

The table below shows the number of value players per major league team, the first player(s) taken and in which round.

The results are hardly surprising. The Red Sox, Angels, and Devil Rays should be quite good. The Blue Jays and Padres should be mediocre. However, there are some interesting stories within the data.

• The Angels are tied for second in total number of value players, but lack superstars, with the aging Vladimer Guerrero and John Lackey not taken until the 5th round. The Angels are the only team whose entire starting rotation was drafted or signed by opening day.
• In contrast, the Mets had only ten value players, but three first round draft picks.
• The World Champion Phillies had nine value players, and two first round draft picks. Notably, all but one of the nine players were taken by the end of the 10th round.

I will note that because we use keepers, the first player taken data is somewhat skewed by scarcity. Matt Holiday in Oakland would likely not be a first round pick in an actual draft; but was a keeper for a team with few better options. Except for Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Justin Morneau, all the other 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks listed below were keepers.

Comments (4)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Draft, Fantasy Baseball

Baseball Crank has begun posting his established win share levels reports for 2009.

In brief, the win share levels use statistical algorithms to analyze each MLB player’s share of his team’s wins:

Win Shares seek to measure a player’s total contribution to a team’s bottom line win/loss record, in the case of non-pitchers through combining batting and fielding contributions. The system makes the assumptions that a team’s total wins can be rationally connected to its runs scored and allowed. Thus, each player is assigned a share of the team’s total wins based on his contribution to scoring and preventing runs.

Baseball Crank produces two numbers. The raw EWSL number for each player identifies a specific rating for data from the the last three years. Raw EWSL reflects past results. The adjusted EWSL number attempts to project the future. This means quantifying an appropriate number for rookies with a starting job, and adjusting for age.

The age adjustments provides one of the most basic parameters for predicting player performance. Before the age of 28 or 29, players tend to improve each year. After 30, they tend to decline. Sometimes dramatically. Individual projections, here as with any expert evaluation, are not that meaningful. But you still have to deal with the odds.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis, Resources

Here they are.

For fantasy, how many do you need to care about? Maybe half a dozen. Take away the catchers, and maybe just a couple. First, Keith Law is listing prospects. Some of these players played A and AA ball last season. They are not going to making a major league roster out of spring training.

Others will have great seasons (like last year’s top prospect Evan Longoria), but we don’t know who they are yet.

Many rookie prospects will be drafted in your fantasy league, and many will be dropped. Rookies are notoriously erratic and they quickly lose playing time when they start poorly. You just have to be alert to picking them up when they get hot again.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Draft, Fantasy Baseball

It’s a sports topic that comes up occasionally with answers that range from Jim Thorpe to Deion Sanders.

One dark horse I like to throw out is Danny Ainge, a poor major league baseball player but a very good NBA guard. He is also, from what I’ve heard, a superb golfer. Golf, see, is the oddball sport that distinguishes a great athlete with truly mystical body control from the average great athlete.

Add another name to the list: John Smoltz. According to Buster Olney, Smoltz is a friend of Tiger Woods and “Woods says Smoltz is the best golfer he knows who is not a professional.”

Nice signing by the Red Sox especially if it turns the hapless Brad Penny into a middle reliever.

Update (25-June-09): Now I’m listening to Smoltz’ first start for the Red Sox. According to the announcers, Smoltz is also indomitable in Ping Pong.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Basketball, Boston Red Sox, Golf

Greg Maddux announced his retirement today. Over a decade ago I heard one of the great local sports talk guys, John Graney of Albany, New York, tell his listeners that (possibly) the best pitcher in MLB history was pitching in their time – and they weren’t paying attention.

Most know that Maddux broke in with the Chicago Cubs. Question: How did he make his first appearance?

Answer here.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Other teams

Between the top and bottom of the second inning in last night’s Red Sox-Yankees game, the Red Sox played California Girls over the PA system.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees

Aubrey Huff’s day-to-day status must be a first:

Huff (hamstring, birth of son) is expected back on Monday, the Washington Post reports.

As far as I know, Huff wasn’t tagged with a hamstring injury before the birth of his son, but what with sleep deprivation and diapers, anything can happen. I can just imagine my status line of June 10th, three days after Giacomo’s birth:

Woodbury (daytime drowsiness, birth of son) is expected back from picking up the other children just as soon as he can remember the way home.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

I decided to pick up Manny Corpas for the few save chances he might get this week. The question was which of my end-of-bench relievers to drop — Jose Veras or Jose Arredondo?

I see Veras and Arredondo as about equal, both in abilty and in their slim-to-none chance of picking up any actual saves (thus the justification for dropping one of them for the less talented Corpas). Veras pitches behind the ageless Mariano Rivera while Arredondo waits for his moment behind 50-save-man Francisco Rodriguez.

So it’s really a toss-up. What sold me was one thing. Veras and Arredondo will get rocked eventually. If it’s going to happen to Veras, I expect the Red Sox to do it. This week.

Update: Wow.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

Joe Castiglione was talking to Dustin Pedroia about his three-run blast in Toronto off a rising 96 MPH fastball from A.J. Burnett and reported this reponse:

My philosophy is when it’s high, let ‘em fly. When it’s low, let ‘em fly. It’s all part of the laser show.

Heard on tonight’s Red Sox broadcast.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

This is today’s Scouts Inc. note for John Maine:

Despite growing concerns with Billy Wagner’s elbow, Maine is not being considered for the closer’s role, manager Jerry Manuel told Newsday.

Thanks Jerry. Anything else Maine isn’t being considered for?

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Other teams, Player Analysis

I turned on the game briefly around 8:30 when the score was 12-2. Just before going to bed, I decided to check the final. The game was still in the seventh. I listened long enough to hear the Sox tie it at 15.

All sorts of records were tied or broken, including this 90-year-old oddity:

Rangers starter Scott Feldman became the first major league pitcher to allow 12 runs and not take the loss since Gene Packard of the St. Louis Cardinals got the win in a 16-12 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Aug. 3, 1918.

I feel for Charlie Zink. The boy wonder of Boston’s “Project Knuckleball” has been pitching great for Pawtucket – a 2.89 ERA and 13 wins in 25 starts. Though he lost his stuff in the fifth inning, above, the six (of eight) runs he gave up were greatly assisted by the ineptitude of Javier Lopez and David Aardsma.

This is what the New Yorker wrote about Zink back in 2004 when his major-league-ready knuckleball was still a gleam in Theo Epstein’s eye:

Zink was twelve when he first saw [Tim] Wakefield—then a rookie with the Pittsburgh Pirates—pitching in the National League playoffs, in 1992. Now, although he is capable of throwing standard-issue jock heat, Zink was trying to mimic the Wakefield delivery as well as he could, right down to the apparent lack of exertion and the junior-varsity speed. From a side view, there was nothing at all remarkable about Zink’s pitches, except that occasionally the catcher didn’t catch them… Zink, who went undrafted as a fastball pitcher, is, at the Red Sox’ urging, reinventing himself as a rare specialist: a knuckleballer. With Wakefield, one of only two knuckleball pitchers currently on a major-league roster, and now Zink, the Red Sox are cornering the market on low-grade weaponry. Project Knuckleball is only just beginning its second year, but, according to Baseball Prospectus, a leading baseball-analysis Web site, Zink is already the Red Sox’ top-rated prospect.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

Interesting column in The New York Times today by Doug Glanville, recalling his trade from the Texas Rangers to the Chicago Cubs in 2003. Glanville mentions the emotional element of the event, but also the practical logistics:

I had my moving plan: I would pack as much as I could possibly carry on the flight to Chicago, then clear out my apartment and jam everything I could into my car. Then, on the Cubs next trip to Houston, I would catch a plane to Dallas, meet up with an auto shipping company and have my car shipped to Chicago. Amazingly, it all went off without a glitch.

I assume he was single at the time.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Other teams

I commented over at Baseball Crank about the Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay (&etc.) trade:

I’m relieved. Manny had the air of a man about to develop a limp and take September off. I’ve seen that season and once was enough.

This trade is an interesting illustration of how the rich clubs get richer. Not only did the Red Sox have a few prospects to deal — evidence of a fully developed farm system — but they could afford to eat a huge chunk of Manny’s contract. Everyone knows that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers have the bucks to sign big name free agents. They also have the bucks to make them go away.

The sad thing for the Pirates is not they lost Jason Bay a year ahead of schedule, but that they had to go begging other teams for prospects.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

One of the more interesting non-fantasy facts about the Teixeira for Kotchman (and the other guy) trade is that both Mark Teixeira and Casey Kotchman are good fielders.

Actually, Teixeira is a great fielder. Teixeira has won two gold gloves and could be in line for another, if Albert Pujols doesn’t beat him out. And while Kotchman looks just good this year, in 2007, he had the best zone rating in the major leagues.

This is one reason Teixeira was never a good fit for the Red Sox. The Red Sox already have a good fielder at first. Plus they have a full time DH.

Kevin Youkilis could probably play shortstop better than Derek Jeter, but we’ll never know.

Update: I significantly rewrote the second paragraph when I looked at the 2008 numbers instead of the 2007.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Fantasy Baseball, New York Yankees, Player Analysis

Here are two things I learned from the Red Sox radio broadcast this evening:

1. Johnny Damon has the highest batting average in the majors since May 20th (not May 19th?)
2. Dustin Pedroia is the hottest player in baseball (not Johnny Damon?).

They are both true. Pay no attention.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees

In fantasy baseball, I hate playing players from the Red Sox. It ruins the real game for me. Instead of following the action, I get distracted by the individual at bat or inning pitched. I do not want to care if a player gets a walk instead of a hit. I do not want to be rooting for a player to steal a base when the team is up by nine runs.

I hate playing players from the American League East. Because those players often play Red Sox. I do not want to have mixed feelings about a Red Sox win. Is it okay if Aubrey Huff hits a home run when the Sox are already ahead by 6? I do not want to think like that.

Another problem is this: I know too much about the Sox. Listening to games on the radio I will hear about who’s in a slump, who doesn’t look sharp, who has a nagging injury, and all of this is bad information. All that matters in fantasy baseball are the numbers. Impressionistic color commentary is mind-junk.

Now, do I avoid drafting Sox players? Do I avoid the entire AL East? Not consciously. Aubrey Huff is my Paul Konerko replacement at the moment. I have several times tried to put together a deal this season for Kevin Youkilis (let’s just say I’ve lucked out with Aubrey Huff.)

But there must be a subconscious disincentive at work, a potential bias in my player analysis given that I’m definitely happy to have no Red Sox players on my fantasy team.

If ever I play a single-league competition, it must be the National League. I don’t care a whit about the National League.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Boston Red Sox, Fantasy Baseball, Player Analysis

I quote from the Jacoby Ellsbury profile on Squidwho, the site that makes Wikipedia look like the New England Journal of Medicine:

One scouting report compared Ellsbury to “a better version of Johnny Damon. I say a better version because he has all the same baseball talent, but a better arm, and minus the greed and ***holeness.”

Thanks for the memories, Johnny.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

In past years, Kevin Youkilis was always a solid first baseman of last resort.

He was okay for average and great for OBP, if you played with OBP. And even if (in past years) he didn’t hit for power, the Boston Red Sox offense give him lots of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

This season, everyone knows about Kevin Youkilis. If you need a good average

Comments (1)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Fantasy Baseball, Other teams, Player Analysis

So writes my brother:

He has no power, diminishing range and he made several painful mental mistakes in last night’s game. Fortunately only the lack of power impacts my fantasy team. But who do the Yankees have in the pipeline for next season?

The thing about Derek Jeter is that he has been aging for a while. What masked his decline was an outlier year in 2006. Here’s Jeter’s OPS, and steals from 1999 – 2007, not including 2006:

1999: .990 OPS, 19 SB
2000: .897 OPS, 22 SB
2001: .857 OPS, 27 SB
2002: .794 OPS, 32 SB
2003: .843 OPS, 11 SB (in 119 games)
2004: .823 OPS, 23 SB
2005: .839 OPS, 14 SB
2007: .840 OPS, 15 SB

Clearly this is a player who stepped down a notch about 6 years ago. The 2006 year, however, messes up the picture:

1999: .990 OPS, 19 SB
2000: .897 OPS, 22 SB
2001: .857 OPS, 27 SB
2002: .794 OPS, 32 SB
2003: .843 OPS, 11 SB
2004: .823 OPS, 23 SB
2005: .839 OPS, 14 SB
2006: .900 OPS, 34 SB
2007: .840 OPS, 15 SB

With an OPS of .732 to date in 2008, Jeter may just be having a poor start, or he may have stepped down another notch. After 2001, excepting 2006, Jeter’s OPS slipped below .850 for good. Perhaps 2008 is the year that his OPS slips below .800 for good.

That said, Jeter has two secondary qualities that always add to his value. First, the Yankees always score lots of runs. Second, other than in 2003, he never gets injured. Until this year.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, New York Yankees, Player Analysis

Here’s one:

You can find them here.

Too bad they’re ugly.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Design

The Wall Street Journal has an interested article on a few unorthodox tactics being tried in baseball (via Steven Dubner). It starts with the following anecdote and proceeds from there:

Braves manager Bobby Cox was desperate, and he was plotting an ingenious plan. He was nearly out of right-handed pitchers, and players can’t re-enter a game after they’ve been removed. If Mr. Resop, a righty, could play the outfield, that would allow Mr. Cox to replace him on the mound temporarily — and use a lefty specialist to pitch to Adam LaRoche — without losing him entirely. So after Mr. Resop pitched to three batters in the top of the 10th inning, Mr. Cox had him go to left field. When Mr. Resop returned to the pitcher’s mound one batter later, it marked the first time a pitcher had pitched, played the field and pitched again in the same game since Jeff Nelson of the Seattle Mariners in 1993, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Interesting reading.

Update: I’m not actually calling Bobby Cox stupid. I’m referencing this Weird Al Yankovic album. Genius starts with the willingness to look dumb. That’s what the article is about.

Comments (1)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Other teams

The uninjured, unslumping Willy Taveras is reduced to pinch-running. Three non-starts produce 1 stolen base,  1 run scored and 1 for 2 at the plate. Manager Clint Hurdle said, “Scott Podsednik happens not to be playing like crap just yet, and I want to enjoy the moment.” No, actually he said:

“I still think for us, at least as we move forward, Willy is going to get every opportunity to play. I’ve just got to find reps and at-bats for Ryan Spilborghs, who does what he does very well. I think Podsednik is going to bring a very nice dimension and dynamic to our club that’s going to play very well. They both happen to be able to play center field. I wouldn’t say it’s going to be a three-headed center fielder by any means. That’ll be the farthest thing from the truth.”

Aargh.

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Dodgers win 11-2 but Kuo can’t get the win. Six Ks in 4 innings. 75 pitches and he gets the hook.

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Bill James is featured on Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt’s Freakonomics blog today answering readers’ questions. The beauty of Bill James thinking, as Dubner describes it, is “his reality-based view of the world”.

Here’s a typical question and answer in which James innocuously subverts the thesis of Moneyball:

Q: Generally, who should have a larger role in evaluating college and minor league players: scouts or stat guys?

A: Ninety-five percent scouts, five percent stats. The thing is that — with the exception of a very few players like Ryan Braun — college players are so far away from the major leagues that even the best of them will have to improve tremendously in order to survive as major league players — thus, the knowledge of who will improve is vastly more important than the knowledge of who is good. Stats can tell you who is good, but they’re almost 100 percent useless when it comes to who will improve.

In addition to that, college baseball is substantially different from pro baseball, because of the non-wooden bats and because of the scheduling of games. So … you have to pretty much let the scouts do that.

Comments (1)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees

Anyone who followed Dice-K’s mediocre September, and compared his sub-six-inning post season starts to Jon Lester’s single appearance could wonder if the Red Sox really needed him. From August 16 through September 22, they could have just as well pitched Julian Tavarez. Maybe they could have saved eight million.

And maybe they could have sat out the playoffs. The importance of Matsuzaka wasn’t just his sterling first half statistics, but the fact that those statistics didn’t accrue to the Yankees. With Matsuzaka, the Yankees easily win five more games. Take a look at their first half and you see multiple losses by guys like Danks and DeSalvo, not to mention Igawa. Different story with Matsuzaka.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees

I didn’t watch the A.L.C.S. game seven last night against the Indians. We’re working on getting Giacomo to sleep throught the night and by 8:00 PM I was exhausted. I put on the radio long enough to hear the lineups then staggered off to bed.

This morning I still didn’t know who had won. I rode my bike to work in a happy state of uncertainty.  Like anticipating an undefeated season for the Patriots, the odds against don’t undercut the thought of success.

The cat that wasn’t turned out to be Josh Becket in the bullpen:

“He was like a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs out there,” [Mike] Timlin said of Beckett. “He didn’t know what to do or when to throw. But he found a way to keep himself occupied.”

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox

Just read in the New York Times that this year’s Red Sox A.L.C.S. roster has only 7 members from the team that beat the Yankees in 2004.

They are Jason Varitek, Doug Mirabelli, Manny Ramírez, David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Mike Timlin. “Kevin Youkilis was not on the 2004 A.L.C.S. roster but was on the roster in the other two rounds.”

That’s really surprising. It feels like the same team, but it isn’t — especially in the starting pitching.

Comments (0)  |  Filed under: Baseball, Boston Red Sox