Last night Tim Wakefield passed Roger Clemens to become the all-time innings pitched leader for the Boston Red Sox. He tops an impressive list:

1. Tim Wakefield

2. Roger Clemens

3. Cy Young

4. Luis Tiant

Next up, the all-time Red Sox wins record. Clemens and Young both have 192. Wake has 177. 15 plus 1 to go.

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Because nothing says “Spring Training” like Boof Bonser’s tattoos.

Man, this makes me happy.

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The big Red Sox debate on the talk shows last weekend was the loss of Alex Gonzalez to Toronto. Gonzalez has played very good shortstop for the Red Sox, and, because he’s a lousy hitter, he was signed for cheap by the Blue Jays. Now it turns out, as rumored, that Toronto’s free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro will be Gonzalez’ replacement. As Scutaro is coming off a career year, he is getting more money and an extra year over the journeyman Gonzalez. You can count on extremely negative reaction to the swap. Everyone loves Gonzalez now. Especially his fielding.

What about Scutaro’s fielding? Sox fans don’t know. Neither do I. Almost no one knows.

After some research I’m prepared to say that Gonzalez and Scutaro are both somewhere in the muddy middle of fielders. Gonzalez may be slightly better and he’s certainly more consistent, but it’s hard to make the call. For the record, the best in 2009 was the obscure Jack Wilson. The best this decade was probably the light-hitting Adam Everett. The worst this decade is quite likely Derek Jeter (though he had his best year ever in 2009). This brings up Bill James’ seminal article, Jeter vs. Everett, which could be subtitled “the skeptic looks at fielding.” After reviewing an analysis prepared by John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, James writes:

The low defensive rating for Derek Jeter is not based on computers, it is not based on statistics, and it is not based on math. It is based on a specific observation that there are balls going through the shortstop hole against the Yankees that might very well have been fielded.

This type of analysis — in which every play in every game is examined by position — is how hardcore enthusiasts grade fielding. Two statistics that result are plus/minus and zone rating. Plus/minus evaluates how many runs score (or not) based on plays made (or not). Zone rating is a ratio of plays made compared to the number of balls hit in a player’s “zone.”

Baseball Reference provides a plus/minus rating called “Total Fielding Runs Above Average” abbreviated Rtot, or Rtot/yr when divided by 1,250 innings.

FanGraphs provides a zone rating called “Ultimate Zone Rating” abbreviated UZR, or UZR/150 when divided by 150 defensive games.

Two things stand out to me when examining these statistics. The first is that while they roughly track each other, the two ratings don’t always agree — underscoring the difficulty of evaluating fielding. The second is that for individual players, fielding varies as much as batting from year to year, if not more so. Like batting, fielding is affected by injury, age, luck, and intangibles. Everett’s wizardry in 2006 and 2007 was followed by good but not great years in 2008 and 2009. Gonzalez’s UZR/150 since 2002 (not counting 2008 when he did not play) is 10.5, 6.8, 5.0, -2.7, 16.9, 5.9, and 10.5 (for comparison, Everett achieved a high of 29.2 in 2007 and has never been lower than 11.2 as a starter).

In this company, Scutaro appears to be especially erratic. In 2006, when he played 69 games at shortstop for the Athletics, his UZR/150 was negative 28.1. Two years later, when he played 56 games at shortstop for the Blue Jays, his UZR/150 was positive 20.3. Arguably the fact that he played multiple positions every season before 2009 could be a factor — perhaps cutting into his practice and certainly lowering the sample sizes. His actual capability as a shortstop may best be reflected by his 2009 season, when he played 143 games at shortstop and achieved a UZR/150 of 1.0. In lifetime numbers, Scutaro ends up as an average fielder at shortstop with a UZR/150 of -2.9 (he is average or worse at second and third base as well).

Gonzalez seems to be a more consistent fielder than Scutaro, but he may not be a better fielder. Certainly, it’s impossible to say who will be better in 2010. Yet Red Sox fans will continue to remember Gonzalez fondly, not least because his best year as a fielder, in 2006, just happened to be for the Boston club.

A summary of findings:

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I agree with Rob Neyer. Tim Wakefield doesn’t have the stats, but the All Star game is bigger than that:

I want to see Tim Wakefield pitch in the All-Star Game. He’s a good guy, and historically unique, and I’ve been avidly following the ups and downs of his career since he arrived in the majors 17 years ago. I think an All-Star Game that has room for Tim Wakefield is a better All-Star Game.

The Red Sox used to line up their starters so that Tim Wakefield would follow Curt Schilling. The idea was to keep opposing hitters off balance through a three-game series.

Now Joe Maddon gets to do the same thing in miniature. Sometime in the later innings, after the NL sluggers have faced Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and few other flamethrowers, after their bats are catching up, Maddon will send out Wakefield for an inning of 60 mph knucklers — and the most effective 72 mph fastball in the majors.

Then he’ll send out Jonathan Papelbon and his 97 mph fastball.

Update: Well, Maddon didn’t use Wakefield. Maybe in a 3-3 ballgame, Maddon figured he’d save Wakefield for the 12th – 15th innings. And maybe he didn’t want to give Victor Martinez a heart attack.

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Whenever a team suffers a disastrous loss, the team’s fans reel. They expect the team to reel. They take the loss as evidence of some tragic weakness in the makeup of their hero. Oedipus was up 10-1 over Fate in the freakin’ seventh. How was a loss even possible?

All this anguish went for nought as the Red Sox proceeded to rally the next night, scoring 4 in the ninth to tie the Orioles, then beating them in extra innings.

Carl Bialik has the numbers. Of the two comebacks, the Orioles’ was the more improbable. Oddly, the odds against the Red Sox were slightly more extreme with the score 5-3 and two outs in the ninth then they were at the beginning of the ninth with the score 5-1.

As for fate, Jonathan Papelbon gets redemption. He doesn’t blow the save. None of the other pitchers involved in the debacle on June 30 were involved. Ramon Ramirez gets the win. The key hit is delivered by Rocco Baldelli off the bench.

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Daniel Bard throws two straight sliders to strike out Ryan Howard who earlier tied the game in the ninth with a home run.

Joe Castiglione says something like “The rookie pitcher has some moxie.”

I don’t think Bard is shaking off Jason Varitek.

Red Sox pitchers fanned 20 in 15 innings. Bard struck out three in the 15th (plus a hit batter) to close out the game and earn the save. (Castiglione mispeaks, saying “Bard strikes out three in the ninth.”)

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Bat Masterson, renowned lawman and gunfighter of the old West, eventually became a renowned lawman and newspaper columnist in New York City. Among his quotes is this:

“Every dog, we are told, has his day, unless there are more dogs than days.”

In Justin Masterson’s 2009 season there have been more dogs than days this year.

Masterson is the classic case of a young pitcher who has great stuff (especially a mid-90s fastball) who can’t seem to master a whole game. He was advanced so quickly through the minor leagues that it is hard to guess what he can do as a starter. His overall minor league ERA is 3.79 and his 2.89 ERA in 9.1 innings at AAA Pawtucket in 2008 is hardly any reassurance that his subsequent 3.16 ERA in Boston that season was for real.

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Once in a while, when the Red Sox are off, I’ll tune to the Yankees (on WPRV, AM 790) . I like the Yankees well enough and I like to follow the AL East.

The problem is listening to John Sterling’s play-by-play. Sterling may be the worst radio announcer of all time (we’re only talking 100 years). I hope he’s the worst. I hate to think there’s someone else out there that combines a more limited repertoire with the same excess of ego.

Admittedly I’m biased by experience. I grew up in the deciduous swamp of upstate New York listening to Yankee broadcasts by Frank Messer, Bill White, and Phil Rizzuto. From left to right that trio produced a blend of great playcalling and great storytelling. Later at night, through the crackle and hum of the analog band, I could pick up Radio Hall of Fame announcer Ernie Harwell on WJR calling Tigers games.

Now I mostly listen to Red Sox games, broadcast by the solid duo of Joe Castiglione and Dave O’Brien. Castiglione has the traditional baseball delivery, gravelly and conversational, while O’Brien is a true professional — accurate, descriptive, and unobtrusive. It’s not surprising that O’Brien also calls games for ESPN.

Sterling does not match up well. It is not his insipid trademark calls, nor his proudly banal understanding of the game that make him awful. It is his lack of cadence and flow.

Thuhhhh pitch.

Sterling must say that 100 times a game. It’s like listening to a man clear his throat for three hours.

I have never noticed Castiglione and O’Brien coughing up a verbal tic like that, so I paid attention the last few games to their technique. What they do is simple. Instead of fixating on “the pitch,” they describe the context of the pitch. They might mention the count, the pitcher’s delivery, the actions of baserunners. Sometimes they don’t describe “the pitch” until after the pitch. Here’s a mix of their calls, the first five from O’Brien, the second five from Castiglione:

Jacoby edging off first base and Garza delivers…
The 2-1 to Ortiz…
The 2-2 on the way to Ortiz…
Bailey takes a strike on the inside corner…
The righty sidearms one for ball one…

The 2-1 pitch…
Count full, runner goes, the pitch is taken low…
Masterson is ready, slings it in there…
The tall right hander is ready, here it is…
At the belt, here it comes, high ball three…

Yes, there’s repetition. But it’s the kind of reptition within variation that makes for good music. Cadence and flow.

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Derek Jeter misplays Jacoby Ellsbury’s pop fly in the 8th.

That title is straight from Joe Castiglione’s radio call.

But Dustin Pedroia strikes out. Inning over.

Oddly, Joe Girardi brought Mariano Rivera in after Jonathan Albaladejo got one strike on Ellsbury.

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It’s a sports topic that comes up occasionally with answers that range from Jim Thorpe to Deion Sanders.

One dark horse I like to throw out is Danny Ainge, a poor major league baseball player but a very good NBA guard. He is also, from what I’ve heard, a superb golfer. Golf, see, is the oddball sport that distinguishes a great athlete with truly mystical body control from the average great athlete.

Add another name to the list: John Smoltz. According to Buster Olney, Smoltz is a friend of Tiger Woods and “Woods says Smoltz is the best golfer he knows who is not a professional.”

Nice signing by the Red Sox especially if it turns the hapless Brad Penny into a middle reliever.

Update (25-June-09): Now I’m listening to Smoltz’ first start for the Red Sox. According to the announcers, Smoltz is also indomitable in Ping Pong.

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Between the top and bottom of the second inning in last night’s Red Sox-Yankees game, the Red Sox played California Girls over the PA system.

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I decided to pick up Manny Corpas for the few save chances he might get this week. The question was which of my end-of-bench relievers to drop — Jose Veras or Jose Arredondo?

I see Veras and Arredondo as about equal, both in abilty and in their slim-to-none chance of picking up any actual saves (thus the justification for dropping one of them for the less talented Corpas). Veras pitches behind the ageless Mariano Rivera while Arredondo waits for his moment behind 50-save-man Francisco Rodriguez.

So it’s really a toss-up. What sold me was one thing. Veras and Arredondo will get rocked eventually. If it’s going to happen to Veras, I expect the Red Sox to do it. This week.

Update: Wow.

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Joe Castiglione was talking to Dustin Pedroia about his three-run blast in Toronto off a rising 96 MPH fastball from A.J. Burnett and reported this reponse:

My philosophy is when it’s high, let ‘em fly. When it’s low, let ‘em fly. It’s all part of the laser show.

Heard on tonight’s Red Sox broadcast.

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I turned on the game briefly around 8:30 when the score was 12-2. Just before going to bed, I decided to check the final. The game was still in the seventh. I listened long enough to hear the Sox tie it at 15.

All sorts of records were tied or broken, including this 90-year-old oddity:

Rangers starter Scott Feldman became the first major league pitcher to allow 12 runs and not take the loss since Gene Packard of the St. Louis Cardinals got the win in a 16-12 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Aug. 3, 1918.

I feel for Charlie Zink. The boy wonder of Boston’s “Project Knuckleball” has been pitching great for Pawtucket – a 2.89 ERA and 13 wins in 25 starts. Though he lost his stuff in the fifth inning, above, the six (of eight) runs he gave up were greatly assisted by the ineptitude of Javier Lopez and David Aardsma.

This is what the New Yorker wrote about Zink back in 2004 when his major-league-ready knuckleball was still a gleam in Theo Epstein’s eye:

Zink was twelve when he first saw [Tim] Wakefield—then a rookie with the Pittsburgh Pirates—pitching in the National League playoffs, in 1992. Now, although he is capable of throwing standard-issue jock heat, Zink was trying to mimic the Wakefield delivery as well as he could, right down to the apparent lack of exertion and the junior-varsity speed. From a side view, there was nothing at all remarkable about Zink’s pitches, except that occasionally the catcher didn’t catch them… Zink, who went undrafted as a fastball pitcher, is, at the Red Sox’ urging, reinventing himself as a rare specialist: a knuckleballer. With Wakefield, one of only two knuckleball pitchers currently on a major-league roster, and now Zink, the Red Sox are cornering the market on low-grade weaponry. Project Knuckleball is only just beginning its second year, but, according to Baseball Prospectus, a leading baseball-analysis Web site, Zink is already the Red Sox’ top-rated prospect.

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I commented over at Baseball Crank about the Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay (&etc.) trade:

I’m relieved. Manny had the air of a man about to develop a limp and take September off. I’ve seen that season and once was enough.

This trade is an interesting illustration of how the rich clubs get richer. Not only did the Red Sox have a few prospects to deal — evidence of a fully developed farm system — but they could afford to eat a huge chunk of Manny’s contract. Everyone knows that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers have the bucks to sign big name free agents. They also have the bucks to make them go away.

The sad thing for the Pirates is not they lost Jason Bay a year ahead of schedule, but that they had to go begging other teams for prospects.

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One of the more interesting non-fantasy facts about the Teixeira for Kotchman (and the other guy) trade is that both Mark Teixeira and Casey Kotchman are good fielders.

Actually, Teixeira is a great fielder. Teixeira has won two gold gloves and could be in line for another, if Albert Pujols doesn’t beat him out. And while Kotchman looks just good this year, in 2007, he had the best zone rating in the major leagues.

This is one reason Teixeira was never a good fit for the Red Sox. The Red Sox already have a good fielder at first. Plus they have a full time DH.

Kevin Youkilis could probably play shortstop better than Derek Jeter, but we’ll never know.

Update: I significantly rewrote the second paragraph when I looked at the 2008 numbers instead of the 2007.

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Here are two things I learned from the Red Sox radio broadcast this evening:

1. Johnny Damon has the highest batting average in the majors since May 20th (not May 19th?)
2. Dustin Pedroia is the hottest player in baseball (not Johnny Damon?).

They are both true. Pay no attention.

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In fantasy baseball, I hate playing players from the Red Sox. It ruins the real game for me. Instead of following the action, I get distracted by the individual at bat or inning pitched. I do not want to care if a player gets a walk instead of a hit. I do not want to be rooting for a player to steal a base when the team is up by nine runs.

I hate playing players from the American League East. Because those players often play Red Sox. I do not want to have mixed feelings about a Red Sox win. Is it okay if Aubrey Huff hits a home run when the Sox are already ahead by 6? I do not want to think like that.

Another problem is this: I know too much about the Sox. Listening to games on the radio I will hear about who’s in a slump, who doesn’t look sharp, who has a nagging injury, and all of this is bad information. All that matters in fantasy baseball are the numbers. Impressionistic color commentary is mind-junk.

Now, do I avoid drafting Sox players? Do I avoid the entire AL East? Not consciously. Aubrey Huff is my Paul Konerko replacement at the moment. I have several times tried to put together a deal this season for Kevin Youkilis (let’s just say I’ve lucked out with Aubrey Huff.)

But there must be a subconscious disincentive at work, a potential bias in my player analysis given that I’m definitely happy to have no Red Sox players on my fantasy team.

If ever I play a single-league competition, it must be the National League. I don’t care a whit about the National League.

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I quote from the Jacoby Ellsbury profile on Squidwho, the site that makes Wikipedia look like the New England Journal of Medicine:

One scouting report compared Ellsbury to “a better version of Johnny Damon. I say a better version because he has all the same baseball talent, but a better arm, and minus the greed and ***holeness.”

Thanks for the memories, Johnny.

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In past years, Kevin Youkilis was always a solid first baseman of last resort.

He was okay for average and great for OBP, if you played with OBP. And even if (in past years) he didn’t hit for power, the Boston Red Sox offense give him lots of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

This season, everyone knows about Kevin Youkilis. If you need a good average

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Bill James is featured on Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt’s Freakonomics blog today answering readers’ questions. The beauty of Bill James thinking, as Dubner describes it, is “his reality-based view of the world”.

Here’s a typical question and answer in which James innocuously subverts the thesis of Moneyball:

Q: Generally, who should have a larger role in evaluating college and minor league players: scouts or stat guys?

A: Ninety-five percent scouts, five percent stats. The thing is that — with the exception of a very few players like Ryan Braun — college players are so far away from the major leagues that even the best of them will have to improve tremendously in order to survive as major league players — thus, the knowledge of who will improve is vastly more important than the knowledge of who is good. Stats can tell you who is good, but they’re almost 100 percent useless when it comes to who will improve.

In addition to that, college baseball is substantially different from pro baseball, because of the non-wooden bats and because of the scheduling of games. So … you have to pretty much let the scouts do that.

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Anyone who followed Dice-K’s mediocre September, and compared his sub-six-inning post season starts to Jon Lester’s single appearance could wonder if the Red Sox really needed him. From August 16 through September 22, they could have just as well pitched Julian Tavarez. Maybe they could have saved eight million.

And maybe they could have sat out the playoffs. The importance of Matsuzaka wasn’t just his sterling first half statistics, but the fact that those statistics didn’t accrue to the Yankees. With Matsuzaka, the Yankees easily win five more games. Take a look at their first half and you see multiple losses by guys like Danks and DeSalvo, not to mention Igawa. Different story with Matsuzaka.

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I didn’t watch the A.L.C.S. game seven last night against the Indians. We’re working on getting Giacomo to sleep throught the night and by 8:00 PM I was exhausted. I put on the radio long enough to hear the lineups then staggered off to bed.

This morning I still didn’t know who had won. I rode my bike to work in a happy state of uncertainty.  Like anticipating an undefeated season for the Patriots, the odds against don’t undercut the thought of success.

The cat that wasn’t turned out to be Josh Becket in the bullpen:

“He was like a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs out there,” [Mike] Timlin said of Beckett. “He didn’t know what to do or when to throw. But he found a way to keep himself occupied.”

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Just read in the New York Times that this year’s Red Sox A.L.C.S. roster has only 7 members from the team that beat the Yankees in 2004.

They are Jason Varitek, Doug Mirabelli, Manny Ramírez, David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Mike Timlin. “Kevin Youkilis was not on the 2004 A.L.C.S. roster but was on the roster in the other two rounds.”

That’s really surprising. It feels like the same team, but it isn’t — especially in the starting pitching.

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