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<channel>
	<title>Henry Woodbury &#187; Baseball</title>
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	<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com</link>
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		<title>The Final Form of Saves</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2011/01/the-final-form-of-saves/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2011/01/the-final-form-of-saves/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Jan 2011 16:23:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=980</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Reggie Jackson on the Jets and Tom Brady: This guy is an automatic Hall of Famer, making fun of him is like making fun of Mariano Rivera.What are you doing? What are you doing? I love the idea of Mariano Rivera as a yardstick. He really is that good. Meanwhile, in The New York Times, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/news/story?id=6019772">Reggie Jackson on the Jets and Tom Brady</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>This guy is an automatic Hall of Famer, making fun of him is like making fun of Mariano Rivera.What are you doing? What are you doing?</p></blockquote>
<p>I love the idea of Mariano Rivera as a yardstick. He really is that good.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, in <em>The New York Times</em>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/14/opinion/14brooks.html">David Brooks quotes Reinhold Niebuhr</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Nothing that is worth doing can be achieved in our lifetime; therefore, we must be saved by hope. &#8230; Nothing we do, however virtuous, can be accomplished alone; therefore, we are saved by love. No virtuous act is quite as virtuous from the standpoint of our friend or foe as it is from our standpoint. Therefore, we must be saved by the final form of love, which is forgiveness.</p></blockquote>
<p>This is a beautiful sentiment in a superb column, worth reading in <a href="http://conorpwilliams.wordpress.com/2011/01/13/barack-obama-abraham-lincoln-reinhold-niebuhr-and-creativity/">parallel with columnist Conor Williams&#8217; similar essay</a>.</p>
<p>Yet having read all these articles in succession, I cannot help noting that for the Yankees, games must be saved by the final form of saves, which is Mariano Rivera.</p>
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		<title>The NFL Extends the Happiness</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/10/the-nfl-extends-the-happiness/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/10/the-nfl-extends-the-happiness/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Oct 2010 21:44:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=919</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Three hours of football delivers 11 minutes of on-the-field action. This fact comes from the Wall Street Journal whose small study aligns with those of other researchers. The Journal points out that football &#8220;is the rare sport where it&#8217;s common for the clock to run for long periods of time while nothing is happening.&#8221; Oddly, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Three hours of football delivers 11 minutes of on-the-field action. <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704281204575002852055561406.html">This fact comes from the <em>Wall Street Journal</em> whose small study aligns with those of other researchers</a>. The Journal points out that football &#8220;is the rare sport where it&#8217;s common for the clock to run for long periods of time while nothing is happening.&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside_game/magazine/life_of_reilly/news/2000/10/10/life_of_reilly/">Oddly, three hours of baseball delivers about the same amount of action</a>. Baseball doesn&#8217;t have a clock.</p>
<p><a href="http://multivu.prnewswire.com/mnr/nivea/43788/">And according to happiness researchers that is well and good</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Anticipation of the event can produce as much happiness as the event itself; in fact, the waiting can sometimes be the happiest part. People also appreciate the ability to extend their happy experiences, before and after the moment.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>38 Wins, 71 Heartbreakers</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/08/38-wins-71-heartbreakers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/08/38-wins-71-heartbreakers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Aug 2010 02:27:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other teams]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=898</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan are supposed to be the Pittsburgh Pirate&#8217;s closers-by-committee. Both were used tonight in the final innings with Pittsburgh down a run. When a team wins as seldom as the Pirates, I guess that&#8217;s what a manager has to do.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28934">Evan Meek</a> and <a href="http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28715">Joel Hanrahan</a> are supposed to be the Pittsburgh Pirate&#8217;s closers-by-committee. <a href="http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=300806123">Both were used tonight in the final innings with Pittsburgh down a run</a>. When a team wins as seldom as the Pirates, I guess that&#8217;s what a manager has to do.</p>
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		<title>Maybe this is why we&#8217;re mortal</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/07/maybe-this-is-why-were-mortal/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/07/maybe-this-is-why-were-mortal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jul 2010 17:55:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=878</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yogi Berra on the passing of George Steinbrenner: George was The Boss, make no mistake. He built the Yankees into champions and that’s something nobody can ever deny. He was a very generous, caring, passionate man. George and I had our differences, but who didn’t? We became great friends over the last decade and I [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/13/end-of-an-era-reaction-rolls-in-to-steinbrenner-death/">Yogi Berra on the passing of George Steinbrenner</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>George was The Boss, make no mistake. He built the Yankees into champions and that’s something nobody can ever deny. He was a very generous, caring, passionate man. George and I had our differences, but who didn’t? We became great friends over the last decade and I will miss him very much.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Goodbye closer</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/06/goodbye-closer/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/06/goodbye-closer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jun 2010 14:12:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=842</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[David Gassko at Book of Odds has a great analysis on the continuity of closers from season to season. Essentially, for most teams, there isn&#8217;t any. I found this link in a post at Another Cubs Blog. Author mb21 cuts to the chase: There&#8217;s no such thing as a closer of the future. In Moneyball [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David Gassko at Book of Odds has a <a href="http://bookofodds.com/Daily-Life-Activities/Sports/Articles/A0144-Few-Baseball-Closers-Return-for-Seconds">great analysis on the continuity of closers from season to season</a>. Essentially, for most teams, there isn&#8217;t any.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.anothercubsblog.net/2010-articles/march/closer-of-the-future.html">I found this link in a post at Another Cubs Blog</a>. Author mb21 cuts to the chase:</p>
<blockquote><p>There&#8217;s no such thing as a closer of the future.</p></blockquote>
<p>In <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-Game/dp/0393057658">Moneyball</a></em> Michael Lewis noted Billy Beane&#8217;s success in keeping closers on a budget. He avoided <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1685414">paying for the successful</a> and generally (barring injuries and <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3950">Octavio Dotel</a>) had few problems bringing up <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/pitching/_/name/oak/year/2006/oakland-athletics">new</a> <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/pitching/_/name/oak/year/2009/oakland-athletics">ones</a>.</p>
<p>A corollary, I suspect, is that <a href="http://www.metstoday.com/3986/player-notes/can-craig-hansen-get-the-monkey-off-his-back/">there&#8217;s no special value in college closers</a>.</p>
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		<title>Wake moves on</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/06/wakefield-moves-on/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/06/wakefield-moves-on/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Jun 2010 14:45:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=835</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last night Tim Wakefield passed Roger Clemens to become the all-time innings pitched leader for the Boston Red Sox. He tops an impressive list: 1. Tim Wakefield 2. Roger Clemens 3. Cy Young 4. Luis Tiant Next up, the all-time Red Sox wins record. Clemens and Young both have 192. Wake has 177. 15 plus [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.projo.com/redsox/slideshow/2010/0608_redsox/pages/02.htm"><img title="Red Sox' Tim Wakefield pitches  to the Cleveland Indians in the first inning. AP Photo/Tony Dejak" src="http://www.henrywoodbury.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/02.jpg" alt="Red Sox' Tim Wakefield pitches to the Cleveland Indians in the  first inning. AP Photo/Tony Dejak" width="500" height="302" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://soxblog.projo.com/2010/06/wakefield-crown.html">Last night Tim Wakefield passed Roger Clemens to become the all-time innings pitched leader for the Boston Red Sox</a>. He tops an impressive list:</p>
<p>1. Tim Wakefield</p>
<p>2. Roger Clemens</p>
<p>3. Cy Young</p>
<p>4. Luis Tiant</p>
<p><a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/columns/story?columnist=edes_gordon&amp;id=5266589">Next up, the all-time Red Sox wins record</a>. Clemens and Young both have 192. Wake has 177. 15 plus 1 to go.</p>
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		<title>Pitchers and catchers report</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/02/pitchers-and-catchers-report/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2010/02/pitchers-and-catchers-report/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Feb 2010 23:45:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=788</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Because nothing says &#8220;Spring Training&#8221; like Boof Bonser&#8217;s tattoos. Man, this makes me happy.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/gallery/2010/02_16_early_arrivals?pg=14"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-789" title="Boof Bonser's Tattooed Calves" src="http://www.henrywoodbury.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/32_tats__1266436337_3525.jpg" alt="Boof Bonser's Tatttoed Calves" width="539" height="359" /></a></p>
<p>Because nothing says &#8220;Spring Training&#8221; like Boof Bonser&#8217;s tattoos.</p>
<p>Man, this makes me happy.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Everyone loves Gonzalez now</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2009/12/everyone-loves-gonzalez-now/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2009/12/everyone-loves-gonzalez-now/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:12:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=640</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The big Red Sox debate on the talk shows last weekend was the loss of Alex Gonzalez to Toronto. Gonzalez has played very good shortstop for the Red Sox, and, because he&#8217;s a lousy hitter, he was signed for cheap by the Blue Jays. Now it turns out, as rumored, that Toronto&#8217;s free agent shortstop [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The big Red Sox debate on the talk shows last weekend was the loss of <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3916">Alex Gonzalez</a> to Toronto. Gonzalez has played very good shortstop for the Red Sox, and, because he&#8217;s a lousy hitter, he was signed for cheap by the Blue Jays.  Now it turns out, <a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/11/28/where-it-stands-with-scutaro/">as rumored</a>, that Toronto&#8217;s free agent shortstop <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4711874">Marco Scutaro will be Gonzalez&#8217; replacement</a>. As <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5217">Scutaro</a> is coming off a career year, he is getting more money and an extra year over the journeyman Gonzalez. You can count on extremely negative reaction to the swap. Everyone loves Gonzalez now. Especially his fielding.</p>
<p>What about Scutaro&#8217;s fielding? Sox fans don&#8217;t know. Neither do I. Almost no one knows.</p>
<p>After some research I&#8217;m prepared to say that Gonzalez and Scutaro are both somewhere in the muddy middle of fielders. Gonzalez may be slightly better and he&#8217;s certainly more consistent, but it&#8217;s hard to make the call. For the record, <a href="http://www.fieldingbible.com/">the best in 2009</a> was the obscure <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4627">Jack Wilson</a>. The best this decade was probably the light-hitting <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4228">Adam Everett</a>. The worst this decade is quite likely <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3246">Derek Jeter</a> (though he had his best year ever in 2009).  This brings up Bill James&#8217; seminal article, <a href="http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/jeter.asp">Jeter vs. Everett</a>, which could be subtitled &#8220;the skeptic looks at fielding.&#8221; After reviewing an analysis prepared by John Dewan of <a href="http://www.baseballinfosolutions.com/">Baseball Info Solutions</a>, James writes:</p>
<blockquote><p>The low defensive rating for Derek Jeter is not based on computers, it is not based on statistics, and it is not based on math. It is based on a specific observation that there are balls going through the shortstop hole against the Yankees that might very well have been fielded.</p></blockquote>
<p>This type of analysis &#8212; in which every play in every game is examined by position &#8212; is how hardcore enthusiasts grade fielding. Two statistics that result are plus/minus and zone rating. Plus/minus evaluates how many runs score (or not) based on plays made (or not). Zone rating is a ratio of plays made compared to the number of balls hit in a player&#8217;s &#8220;zone.&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/">Baseball Reference</a> provides a plus/minus rating called &#8220;Total Fielding Runs Above Average&#8221; abbreviated Rtot, or Rtot/yr when divided by 1,250 innings.  <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/"></a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/">FanGraphs</a> provides a zone rating called &#8220;Ultimate Zone Rating&#8221; abbreviated UZR, or UZR/150 when divided by 150 defensive games.</p>
<p>Two things stand out to me when examining these statistics. The first is that while they roughly track each other, the two ratings don&#8217;t always agree &#8212; underscoring the difficulty of evaluating fielding. The second is that for individual players, fielding varies as much as batting from year to year, if not more so. Like batting, fielding is affected by injury, age, luck, and intangibles. Everett&#8217;s wizardry in 2006 and 2007 was followed by good but not great years in 2008 and 2009. Gonzalez&#8217;s UZR/150 since 2002 (not counting 2008 when he did not play) is 10.5, 6.8, 5.0, -2.7, 16.9, 5.9, and 10.5 (for comparison, Everett achieved a high of 29.2 in 2007 and has never been lower than 11.2 as a starter).</p>
<p>In this company, Scutaro appears to be especially erratic. In 2006, when he played 69 games at shortstop for the Athletics, his UZR/150 was <em>negative </em>28.1. Two years later, when he played 56 games at shortstop for the Blue Jays, his UZR/150 was <em>positive </em>20.3. Arguably the fact that he played multiple positions every season before 2009 could be a factor &#8212; perhaps cutting into his practice and certainly lowering the sample sizes. His actual capability as a shortstop may best be reflected by his 2009 season, when he played 143 games at shortstop and achieved a UZR/150 of 1.0.  In lifetime numbers, Scutaro ends up as an average fielder at shortstop with a UZR/150 of -2.9 (he is average or worse at second and third base as well).</p>
<p>Gonzalez seems to be a more consistent fielder than Scutaro, but he may not be a better fielder. Certainly, it&#8217;s impossible to say who will be better in 2010. Yet Red Sox fans will continue to remember Gonzalez fondly, not least because his best year as a fielder, in 2006, just happened to be for the Boston club.</p>
<p>A summary of findings:</p>
<table class="data-table" border="0">
<thead>
<tr>
<td>Player</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Rtot/yr (2008)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Rtot/yr (2009)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">Rtot/yr (Career)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">UZR/150 (2008)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">UZR/150 (2009)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">UZR/150 (Career)</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Adam Everett</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-2.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13.9</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">18.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jack Wilson</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">15.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">7.9</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">16.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Derek Jeter</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-8.0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-7.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-0.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">8.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-4.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alex Gonzalez</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">DNP</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-0.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-1.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">DNP</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10.5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">6.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Marco Scutaro</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">20.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1.0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">-2.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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		<title>The Mysterious Nick Swisher</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2009/11/the-mysterious-nick-swisher/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2009/11/the-mysterious-nick-swisher/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:30:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=513</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Listening to the World Series on ESPN radio, I was annoyed at hearing, yet again, an announcer express surprise that a player with a low batting average also gets a lot of walks. Guys, taking pitches either gets you walks or gets you outs. A mystery this is not.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Listening to the World Series on ESPN radio, I was annoyed at hearing, yet again, an announcer express surprise that a player with a low batting average also gets a lot of walks. Guys, taking pitches either gets you walks or gets you outs. A mystery this is not.</p>
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		<title>Bill James on steroids</title>
		<link>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2009/07/bill-james-on-steroids/</link>
		<comments>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2009/07/bill-james-on-steroids/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2009 20:13:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Henry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.henrywoodbury.com/?p=479</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Baseball Crank has the link (pdf) and adds his own comments.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Baseball Crank <a href="http://www.actapublications.com/images/small/PressReleases/Cooperstownandthe%27Roids_F2.pdf">has the link (pdf)</a> and <a href="http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2009/07/baseball_everyo.php">adds his own comments</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.henrywoodbury.com/2009/07/bill-james-on-steroids/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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