Because nothing says “Spring Training” like Boof Bonser’s tattoos.

Man, this makes me happy.

A report for this blog is here.

What about Scutaro’s fielding? Sox fans don’t know. Neither do I. Almost no one knows.

After some research I’m prepared to say that Gonzalez and Scutaro are both somewhere in the muddy middle of fielders. Gonzalez may be slightly better and he’s certainly more consistent, but it’s hard to make the call. For the record, the best in 2009 was the obscure Jack Wilson. The best this decade was probably the light-hitting Adam Everett. The worst this decade is quite likely Derek Jeter (though he had his best year ever in 2009). This brings up Bill James’ seminal article, Jeter vs. Everett, which could be subtitled “the skeptic looks at fielding.” After reviewing an analysis prepared by John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, James writes:

The low defensive rating for Derek Jeter is not based on computers, it is not based on statistics, and it is not based on math. It is based on a specific observation that there are balls going through the shortstop hole against the Yankees that might very well have been fielded.

This type of analysis — in which every play in every game is examined by position — is how hardcore enthusiasts grade fielding. Two statistics that result are plus/minus and zone rating. Plus/minus evaluates how many runs score (or not) based on plays made (or not). Zone rating is a ratio of plays made compared to the number of balls hit in a player’s “zone.”

Baseball Reference provides a plus/minus rating called “Total Fielding Runs Above Average” abbreviated Rtot, or Rtot/yr when divided by 1,250 innings.

FanGraphs provides a zone rating called “Ultimate Zone Rating” abbreviated UZR, or UZR/150 when divided by 150 defensive games.

Two things stand out to me when examining these statistics. The first is that while they roughly track each other, the two ratings don’t always agree — underscoring the difficulty of evaluating fielding. The second is that for individual players, fielding varies as much as batting from year to year, if not more so. Like batting, fielding is affected by injury, age, luck, and intangibles. Everett’s wizardry in 2006 and 2007 was followed by good but not great years in 2008 and 2009. Gonzalez’s UZR/150 since 2002 (not counting 2008 when he did not play) is 10.5, 6.8, 5.0, -2.7, 16.9, 5.9, and 10.5 (for comparison, Everett achieved a high of 29.2 in 2007 and has never been lower than 11.2 as a starter).

In this company, Scutaro appears to be especially erratic. In 2006, when he played 69 games at shortstop for the Athletics, his UZR/150 was negative 28.1. Two years later, when he played 56 games at shortstop for the Blue Jays, his UZR/150 was positive 20.3. Arguably the fact that he played multiple positions every season before 2009 could be a factor — perhaps cutting into his practice and certainly lowering the sample sizes. His actual capability as a shortstop may best be reflected by his 2009 season, when he played 143 games at shortstop and achieved a UZR/150 of 1.0. In lifetime numbers, Scutaro ends up as an average fielder at shortstop with a UZR/150 of -2.9 (he is average or worse at second and third base as well).

Gonzalez seems to be a more consistent fielder than Scutaro, but he may not be a better fielder. Certainly, it’s impossible to say who will be better in 2010. Yet Red Sox fans will continue to remember Gonzalez fondly, not least because his best year as a fielder, in 2006, just happened to be for the Boston club.

A summary of findings:

Development of the actual plugin can now begin.

Since we don’t know how well the Colts would have moved the ball had the Patriots punted, Belichick will forever take the blame for the loss, but with two minutes to go the Colts would have been  under no time pressure.

What killed the Patriots was the Colts’ penultimate touchdown drive:  79 yards in 1:49. If the Colts burn even 10 seconds more on that drive, the Patriots could have gotten the clock under the two minute warning on their succeeding series and forced the Colts to use up at least one timeout. That would have made the decision to punt a no brainer.

The other decisive factor? By the final quarter the Colts were dominating the line of scrimmage. The pressure the Patriots put on Manning in the first half simply evaporated. Belichick asked his offense to seal the win because his defense was spent.

Update: As I suspected, Belichick made the right call.

Update: Easterbrook confirms.

2009: 1.004
2008: 1.069
2007: 1.095
2006: 1.153
2005: 1.125

Pick a run-of-the-mill park like Progressive Field in Cleveland and you will see even more variation:

2009: 0.843
2008: 0.995
2007: 1.120
2006: 0.946
2005: 0.874

Now consider that when you play a home split, you’re playing just one game out of a whole season. Not only will the quality of the opposing pitching staff overwhelm the park factor, but so will sheer randomness.

Yet I am willing to recognize that Coors Field (like Petco Park) is an extreme case. Only once since 2001 has Coors Field been lower than third in run production — when spiking run production for several other parks dropped it to 5th in 2003.

The question is, for whom do you play the split? I have Seth Smith as my fourth outfielder but have avoided playing him much because he sits two games out of six. Apparently the Rockies think more highly of Carlos Gonzalez, despite Smith’s equivalent or superior minor league numbers (compare).

Now, the Denver Post reports that Gonzalez will take his starts from the slumping Dexter Fowler:

Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler are the Rockies’ two best athletes. Using a platoon, manager Jim Tracy is hoping to create a single terrific center fielder…. Gonzalez, who lost the left field job three weeks ago to Seth Smith, is now starting in center field against right-handers.

If this holds up — and you are in a league with very deep rosters — you can play the double-split: Gonzalez, at home, against right handers. Ignore for now the fact that Gonzalez has a better road than home split — give him time.

Ultimately, I think Hamilton’s problem this season has been health. Then again, health is a skill, and for all we know, it’s a skill Hamilton can’t conquer.